Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e35f1114d637d1d8709ed241bb11d7e9af9c58fd796429cd2dc15a206ec5aa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 668.18$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 605.94$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 55c | 503.93$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.16 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 48c | 416.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.92 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 44c | 369.95$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.37 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 44c | 363.8$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.28 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 290.81$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 289.63$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 57c | 257.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 245$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 63c | 237.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 57c | 205$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 202.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 196.57$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 196$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 46c | 183.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.52 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 55c | 182.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 45c | 178.91$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 43c | 168$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 31c | 156.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 16c | 149.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 142.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 135$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 40c | 108$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 63c | 107$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 46c | 102.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 99.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 54c | 98.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 73c | 93.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 88.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 88.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 85.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec7…03efbacked No | 50c | 79.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 78.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 75.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 34c | 68.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 51c | 68.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 66.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5d…c45abacked Yes | 42c | 59.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 54.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 47c | 51.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 50.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 58c | 50.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…d909backed Yes | 59c | 48.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 67cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 45.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 55c | 44.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 44.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…1c76backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 40.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 55c | 40.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 38.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 38.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…7acbbacked No | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 37c | 34.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 33.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 46c | 32.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 45c | 31.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 43c | 28.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 42c | 28.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 43c | 27.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…1052backed Yes | 45c | 26.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 26.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 58c | 26.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 43c | 25.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 58c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…fd91backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 22.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.