Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe96f282f0a4b0f9d5326aba3a548cf74944c4d3c8f84df8d6aeabf0aac39f0eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 43c | 1,718$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 636.11$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 592.97$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 573.93$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.87 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 538.1$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 43c | 487.88$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.32 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 49c | 408.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.32 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 49c | 400.86$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 49c | 397.08$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.81 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 46c | 340.63$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 320.21$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 290.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 50c | 282.15$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.69 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 260$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 213$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 51c | 196.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.02 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 51c | 185$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 149.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 142.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 107.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 50c | 103.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 101.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 52c | 100.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 100.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 52c | 95.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 50c | 95.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 95.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec7…03efbacked Yes | 49c | 92.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 89.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 88.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 52c | 88.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 48c | 85.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 83.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 83.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 49c | 73.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 34c | 69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 68.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 67.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 49c | 63.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 46c | 63.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 51c | 62.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 50c | 58.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 58.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 48c | 57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 54c | 54.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5d…c45abacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 56c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 42.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 47c | 40.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 62c | 39.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 38.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 51c | 37.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 41c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 54c | 34.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed No | 61c | 33.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 30.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 28.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 47c | 27.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 58c | 25.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 51c | 23.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 22.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.