Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde59dddfcffb8e471784948db22de6021e44d74066d7a96378c04fbf0860da2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 14c | 2,114$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.64 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 1,575$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 793.53$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 36c | 749.59$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.52 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 12c | 636.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 49c | 517.99$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.25 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 491.33$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 15c | 449.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc466…3f77backed Yes | 23c | 355.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 351$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 32c | 321.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 27c | 309.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 14c | 280.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 257.72$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 236.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 235$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 217.15$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 215$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes | 18c | 195.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 182.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 180.39$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 168.67$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 30c | 162.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 159.52$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 154.6$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 145.9$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…ce08backed Yes | 20c | 141.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 137.69$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 20c | 126.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 30c | 126.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 117$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 104.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 34c | 93.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 90.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…3550backed Yes | 18c | 83.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 81.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 15c | 73.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…1cb0backed Yes | 17c | 70.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 62.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 30c | 61.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 17c | 59.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 74c | 55.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 29c | 55.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…8223backed Yes | 27c | 54.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 24c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 48.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 47.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 32c | 46.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 79c | 42.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 39.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 39.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 31c | 33.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7318…3ce0backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021e…8f1cbacked No | 67c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 20.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 68c | 19.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 16.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.