TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,149
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,149 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes14c2,114$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.648421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes25c1,575$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No73c793.53$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.12,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes36c749.59$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5225135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes12c636.59$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2445130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes49c517.99$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.2515527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c30…0ac6backed No73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1354751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes29c491.33$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes15c449.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.59425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc466…3f77backed Yes23c355.36$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No74c351$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.513,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes32c321.84$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0134533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes27c309.16$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0311724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes14c280.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No75c257.72$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.483,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28b9…427cbacked No75c240$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603764.9%24 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes29c236.49$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.85,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No62c235$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.152,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c217.15$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.364,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c215$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.154,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5054853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes18c195.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes26c182.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No72c180.39$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.787,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No72c168.67$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.473,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8116…465dbacked Yes30c162.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.843525.7%9 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c159.52$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.756,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No79c154.6$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.811,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No72c145.9$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.585,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…ce08backed Yes20c141.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8880%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes28c140$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.225332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No76c137.69$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.74,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes20c126.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes30c126.49$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3820133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.454,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No67c117$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.573,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes11c104.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.051,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2712927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2915128.5%43 W · 108 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8192…871ebacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…17abbacked Yes34c93.87$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.982740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c90.2$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.292,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes27c89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.032,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b58…3550backed Yes18c83.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No77c81.04$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.664,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c75$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes15c73.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3719737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes34c73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8247538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x153b…1cb0backed Yes17c70.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c66.17$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.179,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes24c63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.921,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No70c62.27$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.874,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes30c61.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.820056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes17c59.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1346452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No74c55.44$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.351,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes29c55.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44fd…8223backed Yes27c54.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151625%4 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.527169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.515529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes24c49.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9910042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes30c48.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.292,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No77c47.06$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.063,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes32c46.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1552446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No79c42.46$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.886750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No75c39.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.962,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No78c39.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.712,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9d5…ce23backed No74c36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2615062.7%94 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9016…e4babacked Yes31c33.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.535135.3%18 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91f4…d093backed Yes33c31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1915032%48 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7318…3ce0backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid+8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x021e…8f1cbacked No67c25.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.54,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No79c20.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.32,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.426067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.415961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bc…c1b8backed No68c19.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.236061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No73c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.861,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No69c16.21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.022,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No67c15.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.043,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No73c15.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf75…005cbacked No75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.694755.3%26 W · 21 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No80c13.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.81,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.