Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0141d098b1d4c015cbf2b6af7c7cb65da47b8bc2e32c427a871d137ff0e1bded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 2c | 4,099$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 7c | 1,453$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…ce08backed Yes | 5c | 641.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 19c | 619.35$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.74 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 485.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 8c | 438.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 8c | 421.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 12c | 400.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 257.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 31c | 240.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 17c | 219.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 8c | 209.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 6c | 199.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 8c | 186.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 11c | 183.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 7c | 156.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 19c | 80.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…c897backed Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 30.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 77c | 27.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.