Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a306c78f04a51a001d4a213ebdad0d659d855e281c50212bf1460f37f98f754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 2,819$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,248.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 74c | 1,117$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.95 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 23c | 1,050$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 902.67$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.08 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 73c | 594.34$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.56 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 569.23$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 522.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…807abacked No | 73c | 520.29$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 479$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 39c | 410.41$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 359.35$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 68c | 354.83$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.09 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 42c | 335.52$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.31 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 319.91$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 25c | 259.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.91 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…0becbacked Yes | 25c | 243.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 27c | 231.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 227.11$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 68c | 220$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.01 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 219.79$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.77 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 212.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.49 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 39c | 200.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…b1febacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 59c | 195.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.01 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 36c | 190.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed No | 15c | 188.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 26c | 184$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.16 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 38c | 178$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.09 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 168.67$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 53c | 168.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c3b4backed No | 64c | 157.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 146$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 145.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 143$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 72c | 142$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 20c | 139.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.98 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 42c | 138.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 39c | 134.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 37c | 133$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 132.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 20c | 125.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 24c | 123.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 14c | 116$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 25c | 114.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.44 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 113.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 112.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 111.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 108.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 17c | 104.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 49c | 102.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 42c | 101.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 28c | 97.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 92.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 88.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 52c | 87.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c578backed Yes | 27c | 86.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 85.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 85.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 21c | 84.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 78c | 84.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…01fabacked No | 34c | 84.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 30c | 81.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked No | 13c | 77.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 27c | 77.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…741cbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 74.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 61c | 74.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 22c | 68.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 19c | 67.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 62.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 75c | 61.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 78c | 60.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 58c | 57.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…f229backed Yes | 38c | 55.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 78c | 54.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 74c | 53.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…3550backed Yes | 56c | 53.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…4b87backed Yes | 26c | 52.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 39c | 51.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 20c | 51.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 51.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf49…5c3abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 48.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked No | 63c | 47.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 24c | 45.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.