Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b8534c0c15d6c1201a195b6c05cd61b84802ac17da90fcf8ea112c0f7dc165c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 0c | 15,220$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked Yes | 32c | 1,658$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.53 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 1,225$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 822.13$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 415$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.95 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 378.19$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.54 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 320.61$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 47c | 320.34$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 51c | 307.37$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.34 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 52c | 290.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 287.02$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.63 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 53c | 286$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.46 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 49c | 282.46$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.42 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 256.67$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked No | 73c | 249.93$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 61c | 231.13$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 230$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 33c | 219.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 215.28$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 212.42$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 33c | 190$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 45c | 189.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 188.75$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 181.49$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 68c | 178.76$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 70c | 176.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 168.67$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…bf31backed No | 60c | 167.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 166.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 162.2$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 159.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 152.83$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 149.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 145.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 142.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 28c | 139.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 135.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 135.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 135$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 61c | 133.86$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 129.53$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 129$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 34c | 126.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 118$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 60c | 113.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…741cbacked Yes | 45c | 111.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 108.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 44c | 108.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 47c | 106.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 105.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 33c | 105.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 48c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 35c | 97.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 32c | 95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 94.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 29c | 87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 49c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 17c | 84.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 45c | 80.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 55c | 79.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 52c | 78.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 55c | 75.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 50c | 72.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 66.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 65.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 30c | 63.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 48c | 62.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 62.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 33c | 60.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 48c | 60.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 32c | 60.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf49…5c3abacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 57.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 69c | 53.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 26c | 52.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 41c | 50.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…3550backed Yes | 51c | 49.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 43c | 48.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 66c | 47.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 43.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.