Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5b82cae73634e296cfa5acc2068ef9ba9f645b7b89fa5869e4af66aaf5db36e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 21c | 1,112$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.22 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 701.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 5c | 659.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 2c | 625.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 21c | 572.26$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.24 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 36c | 391.39$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 319.69$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 7c | 299.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 28c | 259.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 256.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 233.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 59c | 232.59$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.59 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 32c | 202.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 72c | 200.72$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 29c | 195.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 184.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 183.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 179.16$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6361…3ec4backed No | 70c | 174.3$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 161.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 68c | 144.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 144$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 127.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 125.37$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 105$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 101$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 57c | 98.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 92.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 36c | 81.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…be51backed Yes | 29c | 73.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 67c | 68.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 69c | 65.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 28c | 65.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 71c | 64.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 64.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 71c | 59.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 79c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 52.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 52.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 49.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 45c | 43.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 43c | 41.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…3c3abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 39.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 66c | 36.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes | 39c | 34.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 34c | 34.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 32.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 29.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 39c | 29.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 74c | 25.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 72c | 23.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 70c | 20.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C or higher on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.