Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f1a6a7f5e043f5615e3a75f126096914543d00059a5f26cc709fab7f984eaf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,841$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…93ddbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 0c | 9,350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dda…23bbbacked Yes | 0c | 9,067$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,921$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.79 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 23c | 953.76$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.16 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 40c | 920.07$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.68 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 5c | 791.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed Yes | 9c | 769.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 73c | 707.24$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.63 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 13c | 660.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed No | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 78c | 550.15$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.62 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 458$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.49 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 34c | 364.76$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 320.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 5c | 318.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 305$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 289.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 40c | 262.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…6af8backed Yes | 56c | 247$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 233.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 59c | 220.52$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.74 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 57c | 213.94$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked Yes | 72c | 198.11$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.99 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 12c | 189.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 20c | 177.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 52c | 172.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 170$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 165.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 77c | 161.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 152.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed No | 50c | 150.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 38c | 148.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 119.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 12c | 119.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 102.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 100.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 93.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7fd6backed Yes | 60c | 92.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 19c | 87.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 59c | 86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 68c | 83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 53c | 81.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 57c | 62.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 69c | 57.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 57c | 57.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 35c | 56.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 45c | 55.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 73c | 54.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 67c | 53.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 45.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes | 59c | 43.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 59c | 42.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 40c | 39.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…895bbacked Yes | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 70c | 35.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 48c | 34.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 39c | 34.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 48c | 33.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 36c | 32.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed No | 64c | 31.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 66c | 30.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…693bbacked No | 75c | 29.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 68c | 29.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 47c | 27.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…b63abacked Yes | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 51c | 25.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…784ebacked No | 65c | 23.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 58c | 22.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…c791backed No | 58c | 22.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 72c | 19.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…41d0backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ef…5482backed Yes | 75c | 15.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…773dbacked No | 78c | 13.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C or higher on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.