TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,644

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,664 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes0c10,841$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.191,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa69…93ddbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes0c9,350$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dda…23bbbacked Yes0c9,067$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.28425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-66.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes13c1,921$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.792,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes23c953.76$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.1638633.4%129 W · 257 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf742…400ebacked Yes40c920.07$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.6811614.7%17 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes5c791.07$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.577151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed Yes9c769.44$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.565752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No73c707.24$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.6324466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes13c660.02$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4527037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeba0…4586backed No47c600$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x71d0…b73abacked Yes78c550.15$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.6210757.9%62 W · 45 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No60c458$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.491,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes34c364.76$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9198738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes26c320.29$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.084,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes5c318.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2443139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No49c305$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.034,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes5c289.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7760523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes40c262.67$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9933535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6053…6af8backed Yes56c247$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.25785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes23c233.11$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.852,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes59c220.52$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7410827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes57c213.94$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7414060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…cd3cbacked Yes72c198.11$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9912851.6%66 W · 62 L-13.1wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-25.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes10c190$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.738641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes12c189.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.038636%31 W · 55 L+10.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked Yes20c177.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8925541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No52c172.62$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5138146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No80c170$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.43,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes21c165.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.161,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No77c161.3$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.124262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No58c152.09$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.164,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed No50c150.51$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.553540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No38c148.74$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0539951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No28c119.61$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.298236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes12c119.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.122,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No79c102.88$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.444,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes30c100.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.077,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes45c99.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No59c93.02$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.156,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f34…7fd6backed Yes60c92.6$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.45742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes19c87.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1722937.1%85 W · 144 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes59c86$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7412350.4%62 W · 61 L-14.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed No68c83$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4914254.2%77 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes53c81.14$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.742,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed Yes57c62.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6612853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No25c60$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No69c57.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6236648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No57c57.06$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4248261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes35c56.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.668247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes45c55.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked No73c54.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.874776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes67c53.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.756439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.514372%103 W · 40 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes39c45.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0262137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes59c43.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.663234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes59c42.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.822,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bc5…33d3backed No40c39.97$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.149857.1%56 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc651…895bbacked Yes42c39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.461833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadb9…8326backed Yes70c35.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9214645.9%67 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes48c34.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4819060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes39c34.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.272,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes48c33.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610744.9%48 W · 59 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes36c32.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.599262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xc9cf…b443backed No64c31.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.156728.4%19 W · 48 L-8.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.075,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes66c30.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0928546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7d5…693bbacked No75c29.45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c72…825ebacked Yes68c29.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204568.9%31 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x025e…bb39backed No44c28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6810554.3%57 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No47c27.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.355,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x278b…b63abacked Yes75c26.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948f…0b98backed Yes51c25.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0711983.2%99 W · 20 L+21.5wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+27.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf651…86b1backed Yes50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.556157.4%35 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56ab…784ebacked No65c23.77$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.241118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.32per pick51cpaid-68.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfb88…56babacked Yes58c22.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.12080%16 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa81a…c791backed No58c22.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.531330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1119541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9866758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3889951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.363253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed No72c19.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.559769.1%67 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No60c17.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2271057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf3b…41d0backed Yes65c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.440%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09ef…5482backed Yes75c15.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6326…773dbacked No78c13.19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.882070%14 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.