Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f8e02ff7a8baff56be6f6eaff96f3560b534e9b11e99fe52881b0b25f035c42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,019$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 18c | 1,195$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.69 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 30c | 1,187$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 973.76$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.48 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 882.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 5c | 686$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 37c | 483.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.51 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 429.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 37c | 397.57$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 8c | 349.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…6f69backed Yes | 5c | 347.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 20c | 315.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 36c | 287.64$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 262.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 23c | 256.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 8c | 236.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked Yes | 8c | 236.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 230.95$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 228.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 16c | 190.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 189.46$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…92ebbacked Yes | 38c | 180.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 28c | 164.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 68c | 157.39$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 8c | 156.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 63c | 142.92$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 140$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 72c | 134.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 10c | 121.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 121.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 115.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 114.22$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 10c | 109.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 103.16$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 23c | 102.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 24c | 98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 29c | 88.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 63c | 87.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 83.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 12c | 83.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 80.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 79.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 38c | 72.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…be51backed Yes | 43c | 72.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 72.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 70.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 60c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 76c | 62.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 19c | 62.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 53.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 58c | 46.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 44.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 41c | 44.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 38c | 39.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…3c3abacked Yes | 37c | 35.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1634…8773backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +212.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked No | 63c | 28.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 76c | 28.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 74c | 25.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ff…0d46backed No | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 71c | 23.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 21.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…f0b9backed No | 74c | 20.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 62c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked No | 67c | 16.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 15.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C or higher on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.