TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,586 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes1c2,019$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.141,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes18c1,195$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.693540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes30c1,187$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.121236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No62c973.76$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.4881558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes5c882.46$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.332,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes5c686$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.781679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed Yes37c483.99$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.5114359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes35c429.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes37c397.57$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9611438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes8c349.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.18636%31 W · 55 L+10.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b22…6f69backed Yes5c347.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.292347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes20c315.59$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4798738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes36c287.64$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3460523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes22c262.55$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes23c256.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1733535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes8c236.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5717940.8%73 W · 106 L+29.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+113.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x2b02…abdfbacked Yes8c236.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.854325.6%11 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+54.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c230.95$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.754,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes26c228.02$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.011,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes16c190.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8656627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No64c189.46$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.111,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ac…92ebbacked Yes38c180.1$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.44955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes28c164.16$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1943139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f35…9ea4backed No68c157.39$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.711181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick70cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes8c156.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1243540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2bc…1485backed Yes38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576346%29 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed No63c142.92$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8824141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c140$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.289,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0957…5db6backed No72c134.54$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.951968.4%13 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes10c121.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.824751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c121.32$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No67c115.21$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.494,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c114.22$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.919,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes10c109.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.818641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No79c105$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.755967.8%40 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No74c103.16$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.334,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed Yes23c102.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.137057.1%40 W · 30 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes24c98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5210827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes29c88.23$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7717524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed No63c87.86$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5159144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No73c83.62$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.624,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked Yes12c83.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1225541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No78c80.26$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6289951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes22c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.934935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes26c79.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.465,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes38c72.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb4…be51backed Yes43c72.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No58c72.21$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5538243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c70.81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.434,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba6d…9128backed No60c64$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.588251.2%42 W · 40 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No76c62.49$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0228163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ca…498fbacked Yes19c62.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.073357.6%19 W · 14 L+7.0wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+53.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No79c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.416,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.13,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1734831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes25c58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.651,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c53.31$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.635,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2066926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.549675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No58c46.44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5940162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes35c44.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.674,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No67c44.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.782,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked Yes41c44.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.480962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.629927.8%83 W · 216 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cf…b443backed Yes38c39.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156728.4%19 W · 48 L-8.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf178…3c3abacked Yes37c35.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1634…8773backed Yes36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+212.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f52…895cbacked No63c28.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.673545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No76c28.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7945675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No74c25.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6454867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85ff…0d46backed No58c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.61838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e4…7718backed No71c23.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.934367.4%29 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No62c21.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.033,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0114…f0b9backed No74c20.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.431957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.413637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.28655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.241752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.24,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f0…1731backed No62c18.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.182268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2a3…902dbacked No67c16.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.362441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.444,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b0a…65abbacked No77c15.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4933876.6%259 W · 79 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick78cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1359…7e7bbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.511774.4%87 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick75cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.