Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a49ec0dbcefc9fe0cc04ecaf1ef7b41ddd3031ff1aa02988cc3714c495dae9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 1c | 2,671$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,807$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.51 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 40c | 496.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.05 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 436.62$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.34 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 19c | 384.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.21 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 10c | 380.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.8 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 14c | 366.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 16c | 296.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.08 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 263.37$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 58c | 262.74$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.57 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 18c | 219.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.74 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 10c | 214$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 64c | 192$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 185.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 171$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 27c | 170.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 169.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 17c | 156$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.34 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 17c | 152.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.92 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 140.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 70c | 126.81$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 28c | 126.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 8c | 126.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 28c | 126$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 123.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 30c | 116.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 113.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 50c | 109.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 104.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 12c | 102.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 11c | 100.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 54c | 96.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 18c | 96.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 15c | 95.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 33c | 90.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 20c | 81.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 79.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…be51backed Yes | 15c | 74.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7fd6backed Yes | 27c | 72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked No | 77c | 71.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 49c | 68.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 58.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 57.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 20c | 55.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 57c | 53.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…bc3ebacked No | 71c | 50.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b2…a684backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 29c | 48.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 70c | 48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0935…9e81backed No | 80c | 42.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 37c | 42.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 44c | 41.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 36c | 37.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 33.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 63c | 28.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 59c | 28.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 43c | 24.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…b261backed Yes | 62c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 23.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 77c | 20.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 54c | 19.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C or higher on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.