Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e6f74d181557822ecc835aaa0d06ca7b787cafcf7aa3eccd1723891194d5d4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 30c | 2,126$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.97 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 12c | 987.3$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 817.05$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 655.42$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.03 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 24c | 447.92$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 349.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 16c | 291.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 206.48$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 196.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 24c | 160.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 125.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 10c | 121.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 75c | 113.83$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 97.59$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 95.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 14c | 80.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 77.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 79c | 70.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 28c | 68.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 74c | 65.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 16c | 64.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 55.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 25c | 55.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 77c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187c…31afbacked Yes | 34c | 45.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 78c | 44.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…2ef1backed No | 72c | 32.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3065…ad8dbacked No | 75c | 27.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6124…181abacked No | 75c | 27.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…c72dbacked No | 75c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…4446backed No | 69c | 24.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 64c | 20.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…1ebdbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5c…a906backed No | 71c | 18.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 75c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C or higher on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.