Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e9c75774d89e140af965a86336bd03a47683d39360e85f6e801ce4573164423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17ea…e98fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,038$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 44c | 394.4$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.12 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 32c | 390.2$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 67c | 361.57$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.55 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 7c | 287.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 29c | 272.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 228.38$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 224.18$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 216.17$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 22c | 215.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…357fbacked Yes | 32c | 196.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 70c | 143.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 133.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 33c | 106.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 57c | 85.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 79c | 76.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 76.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 39c | 73.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 36c | 71.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 28c | 70.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 69c | 70.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 69c | 70.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 68c | 69.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 62c | 66.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 28c | 64.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 46c | 62.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa30e…cf53backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 32c | 62.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 61.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 40c | 59.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 62c | 56.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 36c | 56.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 50.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 48.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 47.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 43.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 43.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 39.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…68a5backed No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 39c | 38.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 37.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 64c | 34.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked No | 54c | 33.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 69c | 29.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 29.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ab…d374backed Yes | 43c | 29.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e3…8327backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 69c | 28.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…49a3backed Yes | 69c | 27.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 39c | 25.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 25.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 68c | 23.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…4796backed Yes | 61c | 22.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 66c | 20.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed No | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5002…9eefbacked Yes | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 74c | 15.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 77c | 14.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.