Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x209962b94077ac57471f7ff74471936ccd7aeb0abed0192e4e634cfe8efeec8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 68c | 1,268$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.06 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 641.89$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.36 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b2…a684backed No | 39c | 480$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 79c | 441.65$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 36c | 397.23$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.22 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 70c | 327.74$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 309.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 30c | 287.38$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.02 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 286$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 38c | 266.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.15 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 66c | 265.11$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.12 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 38c | 228.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed Yes | 34c | 220.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.79 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 19c | 218.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…357fbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 34c | 199.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.93 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…92ebbacked Yes | 34c | 199.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 176.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.68 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 139.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 33c | 118.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 36c | 110.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 68c | 110.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 13c | 108.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…a12fbacked Yes | 36c | 108$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 32c | 105.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 59c | 89.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 74c | 88.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 60c | 81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 80.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 78.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 76.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 35c | 71.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 76c | 63.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 40c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 58.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 29c | 58.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 36c | 56.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 68c | 56.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 40c | 53.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30e…cf53backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 39c | 51.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 48.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…f9e0backed Yes | 61c | 48.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 58c | 47.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 45.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…82cbbacked Yes | 61c | 43.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 30c | 42.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 42.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 42.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 30c | 37.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 31c | 34.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 64c | 30.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 61c | 29.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 26.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 25.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 61c | 24.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 21.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 21.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 65c | 20.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…49a3backed Yes | 75c | 18.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed No | 62c | 17.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 14.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.