AI · resolved market
ChatGPT Outage by April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x006fcb479c5913e522e0d54b3ed04ccaeda4a930d74d0fed85c208e9fee1beb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 72c | 879.78$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.4 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 30c | 535.07$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.08 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 53c | 507.84$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.2 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 499.98$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 397.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 46c | 337$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 62c | 282.43$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 49c | 281.08$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 69c | 273$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a1…dcb8backed No | 25c | 228.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 62c | 222.83$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 39cpaid | +165%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc458…1e1cbacked No | 24c | 195.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 58c | 193.28$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 74c | 187.69$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 74c | 170.15$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 26c | 168.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 168$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 78c | 154.26$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 61c | 144.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…74e4backed Yes | 77c | 127.48$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1289…6f82backed Yes | 80c | 125.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefeb…37dbbacked No | 39c | 121.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3582…746fbacked No | 20c | 114.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…7cc7backed No | 43c | 101.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 21c | 93.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…f519backed Yes | 79c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 51c | 75.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +304.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 48c | 67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…41bdbacked No | 23c | 60.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…e527backed No | 20c | 58.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdc…a29abacked Yes | 77c | 56.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…b0c1backed No | 65c | 53.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 50cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…325dbacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…34d9backed No | 43c | 38.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 76c | 38.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…db52backed Yes | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab2…b321backed No | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 75c | 37.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed Yes | 51c | 24.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…c2fbbacked Yes | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…1931backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…330cbacked Yes | 59c | 19.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 60c | 17.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ChatGPT Outage by April 24?this page
- ChatGPT Outage by April 10?Yes won
- ChatGPT Outage by April 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.