AI · resolved market
ChatGPT Outage by April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fbdb2bb08820af067cafe5c66802e8773aa4b95fd51b77ab965c26de81e4b11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 50c | 684.56$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed No | 48c | 536.54$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 63c | 372.46$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.56 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 47c | 325.62$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 39cpaid | +165%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…3075backed Yes | 50c | 299.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 299.94$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 20c | 268.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 47c | 245.19$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 6c | 231.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 59c | 230.93$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 47c | 211.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.87 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…fa7bbacked No | 43c | 196.37$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…6afabacked No | 54c | 196.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed No | 50c | 193.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 52c | 192.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 52c | 192.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +103%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 77c | 160.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 48c | 144.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 52c | 138.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 119.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4564…e1b4backed No | 49c | 97.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 50c | 95.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3582…746fbacked Yes | 52c | 83.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefeb…37dbbacked No | 57c | 83.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked Yes | 51c | 79.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 54c | 79.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 48c | 79.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0256…c3ebbacked Yes | 51c | 62.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9050…67c5backed Yes | 44c | 56.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…3553backed No | 49c | 48.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 47c | 44.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 44c | 44.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…faccbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc458…1e1cbacked No | 49c | 39.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba2…80f0backed No | 49c | 39.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 38.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…330cbacked Yes | 50c | 33.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67a…cc40backed No | 58c | 33.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked No | 49c | 30.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdd…6445backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…7a70backed No | 51c | 24.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca42…35f9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…412bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d21…caa1backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ChatGPT Outage by April 17?this page
- ChatGPT Outage by April 10?Yes won
- ChatGPT Outage by April 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.