TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof PARIVISION, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$369,312
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$448,381

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $369,312 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 301 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked PARIVISION42c53,898$22,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,550.24540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked Team Spirit58c49,244$28,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,682.31338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Spirit57c23,256$13,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,999.9813155%72 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed PARIVISION43c18,888$8,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,121.8216842.9%72 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Team Spirit57c18,645$10,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,947.168258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed PARIVISION43c16,108$6,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,956.0414840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION39c16,014$6,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,254.382,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2838…fdd3backed Team Spirit76c11,596$8,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,790.73966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked PARIVISION23c10,500$2,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393.1910048%48 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked PARIVISION43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30021350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed Team Spirit56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,400475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+48.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked PARIVISION43c9,120$3,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,921.5819943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked PARIVISION42c7,870$3,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,306.091145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Team Spirit58c7,780$4,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,292.288950.6%45 W · 44 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed PARIVISION40c7,500$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.994645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked PARIVISION42c7,093$3,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,013.981233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa20…6f8bbacked Team Spirit59c6,574$3,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,695.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Team Spirit58c5,724$3,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,404.0227645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29f9…e310backed Team Spirit57c5,033$2,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.1712256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked PARIVISION26c5,000$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.7934146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked PARIVISION44c4,546$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Team Spirit56c4,500$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.915761.4%35 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked PARIVISION22c4,357$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.6914121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Team Spirit67c4,041$2,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.735044%22 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Team Spirit57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7202867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed PARIVISION44c3,900$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Team Spirit78c3,892$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.238253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Team Spirit57c3,886$2,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.1111839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Team Spirit72c3,857$2,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.1218452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9de…5fb1backed PARIVISION7c3,544$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.36147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Spirit58c3,414$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.7933850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…40e3backed PARIVISION42c3,318$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.553650%18 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked PARIVISION44c3,229$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.768447.6%40 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked PARIVISION33c3,000$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97539936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed PARIVISION25c2,937$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.6310745.8%49 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Team Spirit71c2,833$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.0112459.7%74 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed PARIVISION29c2,436$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.3914947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked PARIVISION21c2,400$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49616232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed PARIVISION42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea61…cc32backed PARIVISION43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked PARIVISION25c2,248$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.734445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Spirit59c2,202$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.6929160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa17…3aa2backed Team Spirit77c2,076$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.568557.6%49 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Team Spirit56c2,040$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.713250%16 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed PARIVISION22c1,914$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.6262650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked PARIVISION44c1,910$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.394351.2%22 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed PARIVISION41c1,800$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7444252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked Team Spirit56c1,783$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.5412868%87 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked PARIVISION42c1,780$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.66350.8%32 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Spirit59c1,704$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.6253451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked PARIVISION44c1,515$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6644654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec61…4a2ebacked Team Spirit76c1,461$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.5710941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed PARIVISION21c1,440$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.517740.7%72 W · 105 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Team Spirit76c1,400$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed PARIVISION44c1,294$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.55642.9%24 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed PARIVISION34c1,264$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.246033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c1…e644backed Team Spirit73c1,263$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.791747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80a9…ad8bbacked PARIVISION12c1,200$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed PARIVISION20c1,115$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22455751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd3…d057backed PARIVISION22c1,078$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2407642.1%32 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4cd…e2abbacked Team Spirit79c1,076$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.621844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba83…9490backed Team Spirit79c1,028$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.88683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked PARIVISION44c1,004$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.628046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked PARIVISION41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4107357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Team Spirit58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4203748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Spirit80c903$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.228159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked PARIVISION43c898.28$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.711855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Team Spirit57c890.89$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.8941248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed PARIVISION44c817.45$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.681838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION22c806.63$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.2573841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7c…5a30backed PARIVISION20c802.19$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.449544.2%42 W · 53 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9be…8b35backed Team Spirit79c720.8$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.98349.4%41 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Team Spirit57c712.4$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.46142.6%26 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Team Spirit78c700$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15118649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59b8…26b2backed Team Spirit57c624$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8054…150cbacked PARIVISION13c605$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Team Spirit59c600$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24620642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed PARIVISION43c600$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25849133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x910b…ff42backed PARIVISION8c591$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.982352.2%12 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed PARIVISION23c583.67$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.465928.8%17 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdd2…a1fdbacked PARIVISION41c581.39$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.373847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94ea…f2dabacked Team Spirit57c568.01$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.01771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+70.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Team Spirit66c546.18$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.842740.7%11 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc67b…c149backed Team Spirit59c537.74$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.741060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed PARIVISION43c530$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.913346.6%62 W · 71 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked Team Spirit57c530$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.915653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4f2…3263backed Team Spirit57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.326175.4%46 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc651…15d3backed Team Spirit58c517.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.247147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae9…74acbacked PARIVISION9c500$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Spirit57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21558152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked PARIVISION8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40879.2%8 W · 79 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd55…fc45backed Team Spirit58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c2…d0afbacked Team Spirit58c484.48$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.482657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fe…a43dbacked Team Spirit57c473.68$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.682770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed PARIVISION43c467.44$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017341.1%30 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked PARIVISION21c465.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7217946.9%84 W · 95 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Team Spirit59c450.4$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.635166.7%34 W · 17 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed PARIVISION40c449.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9946535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Team Spirit58c448.28$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.285078%39 W · 11 L+7.4wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+20.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed PARIVISION18c443$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0215131.8%48 W · 103 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.