Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f18931591f7b07962c98379f84d8946779e1fa2d38cd0456daaa578d9e684c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 22c | 11,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 9c | 9,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b43…ae77backed Yes | 14c | 7,163$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 11c | 5,256$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.03 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Yes | 27c | 5,185$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0f…df30backed Yes | 19c | 4,259$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…6732backed Yes | 5c | 3,480$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…7408backed Yes | 13c | 2,727$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 21c | 2,277$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.36 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 7c | 2,027$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.02 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…2de9backed Yes | 2c | 1,992$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…7719backed Yes | 2c | 1,734$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b4…31d3backed Yes | 14c | 1,550$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 1,435$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.5 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4746…9a30backed Yes | 4c | 1,394$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…fa4abacked Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd728…a31fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,250$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,162$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,017$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 1,004$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…a91cbacked Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes | 12c | 935.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 926.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 796.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 740.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…e751backed Yes | 15c | 712.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes | 9c | 520.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed Yes | 4c | 513.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 10c | 506.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…8232backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…c4d6backed Yes | 20c | 490$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 16c | 450$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d1…8f40backed Yes | 10c | 446.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…c29bbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…b74dbacked Yes | 6c | 410.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 408.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed47…3105backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…be08backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…04f3backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…a9b1backed Yes | 9c | 326.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 15c | 290.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7c…639bbacked Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5990…4fb8backed Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e6…2d79backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e7…c007backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4b…e0f4backed Yes | 12c | 173.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 14c | 166$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…9c04backed Yes | 14c | 161.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c1…6694backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…3e66backed Yes | 12c | 133.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf897…d141backed Yes | 22c | 131.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…5c5dbacked Yes | 8c | 125.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c6…2e08backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +352.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…7b3ebacked Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…fd96backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…88febacked Yes | 21c | 94.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…0215backed Yes | 22c | 75.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4016…6955backed Yes | 18c | 70.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4caa…00a5backed No | 74c | 17.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 22-28?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.