Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe17fb36395ee53242b1b228f47cac18887ad650a054deae0b9e76aac6941b3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee72…2b98backed Yes | 16c | 13,972$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 7c | 7,058$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 13c | 6,599$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.33 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 11c | 5,920$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 12c | 4,183$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,807$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 1c | 2,896$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 3c | 2,866$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 2c | 2,757$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,677$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.89 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 16c | 2,296$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.71 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…3702backed Yes | 14c | 2,069$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb5…0385backed Yes | 15c | 1,947$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…4966backed Yes | 11c | 1,791$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b0…b801backed Yes | 15c | 1,534$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…311dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,447$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…dbcabacked Yes | 15c | 1,427$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,365$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5892…f672backed Yes | 14c | 1,346$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1050…0dd6backed Yes | 15c | 1,311$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…883abacked Yes | 14c | 1,244$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,161$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.38 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac72…fa2ebacked Yes | 15c | 928.69$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 928.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 831.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…fa74backed Yes | 14c | 809.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b5…d768backed Yes | 6c | 699.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 661.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 649.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 603.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 596.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 14c | 561.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…18cabacked Yes | 5c | 517.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 7c | 495.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 480.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x156d…e025backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 4c | 279.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed Yes | 6c | 256$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4b…e0f4backed Yes | 5c | 244.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…a901backed Yes | 14c | 235.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Yes | 12c | 196.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…f700backed Yes | 12c | 182.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…a9b1backed Yes | 16c | 123.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 11c | 114$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…69e4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…3e66backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd027…ef27backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 22-28?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.