Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4ade59ee664dcd610df94da83c2e0a8a2395f50521e3462dcb6fef3005ae07a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 5c | 11,702$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.05 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 10c | 11,000$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Yes | 15c | 6,643$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.27 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…c2ddbacked Yes | 14c | 5,600$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…d5aabacked Yes | 15c | 4,762$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 16c | 4,599$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.4 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 3c | 4,238$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 9c | 3,572$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.89 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…2de9backed Yes | 1c | 3,178$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…6070backed Yes | 11c | 2,681$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0f…df30backed Yes | 8c | 2,283$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68fb…b0debacked Yes | 13c | 2,179$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes | 3c | 2,122$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 33cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,739$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 6c | 1,600$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d84…4548backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…5ac9backed Yes | 7c | 1,041$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 1,024$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.02 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…7d6cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,017$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 946.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…c86fbacked Yes | 14c | 939.48$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 900$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…a91cbacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes | 3c | 813.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 810.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7147…68dabacked Yes | 15c | 800.6$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…6bdcbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50af…374bbacked Yes | 14c | 713.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 691.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…d3eabacked Yes | 16c | 643.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 6c | 642.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed Yes | 4c | 609.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223b…cf16backed Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…bb47backed Yes | 11c | 545.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 18c | 535.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…60b8backed Yes | 14c | 525.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1317…769ebacked Yes | 3c | 491.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…e751backed Yes | 14c | 464.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…c4d6backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 17c | 400.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf897…d141backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…8d49backed Yes | 14c | 321.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Yes | 5c | 288.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4b…e0f4backed Yes | 4c | 281.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2296…fd70backed Yes | 15c | 267$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792f…a740backed Yes | 11c | 236.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…a3c9backed Yes | 6c | 234.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece2…0c61backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd6…a20fbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…347fbacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…87d1backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9461…add4backed Yes | 14c | 72.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 22-28?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.