TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 22-28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$199,613
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,613 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes25c30,999$7,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,669.87123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No74c8,750$6,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280.7858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x156d…e025backed Yes27c7,385$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes4c6,600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.18904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,083$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.961,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x603c…ac70backed Yes34c3,059$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.94714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+104.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee72…2b98backed Yes35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes23c2,811$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.4287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d8…2de9backed Yes4c2,447$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-65.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9197…08d4backed No75c2,240$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.132445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54da…5ea0backed Yes35c2,237$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9881…c3aebacked No65c2,234$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes4c2,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.985617.9%10 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-32.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51f3…af1dbacked Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…2bfcbacked No65c1,975$1,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d29…19aebacked No66c1,974$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.243100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ac…fc03backed Yes35c1,969$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes27c1,945$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.5422550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa657…50e3backed No65c1,839$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6913…aef4backed Yes35c1,830$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9b…2923backed No65c1,668$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510c…af1dbacked Yes35c1,663$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd172…19febacked Yes35c1,628$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15fa…430ebacked No65c1,611$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c1,385$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.236785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes26c1,339$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.5364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c1,330$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.632999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes1c1,226$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.815048%24 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes6c1,112$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.124721.3%10 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes6c924.82$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.241203.3%4 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc6…7847backed Yes30c918.82$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes7c910$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes13c900.21$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8537745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85a0…511ebacked Yes13c875.01$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes23c865.22$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19914340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes25c861.99$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.542015%3 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked No67c850$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.57140.8%29 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes25c829.01$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.07160%0 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8546…fcefbacked No66c827.31$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.31666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes25c800$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes2c779.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.616729.3%49 W · 118 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes20c750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c725.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.922125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes7c705.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.551073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes24c673.54$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.455032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe622…18cabacked Yes7c551.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6290%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd596…4966backed Yes21c476$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9670%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes23c436.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3834848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f98…199cbacked Yes11c399.71$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes39c384.03$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No80c362.74$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1926274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed No80c350$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702572%18 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked No75c340$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.511265.2%73 W · 39 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5302…208abacked Yes37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112250%11 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…cb2ebacked No71c280.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.684100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddf3…a901backed Yes37c239.43$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f5b…64fbbacked Yes9c232.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed No68c218.96$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a97…593dbacked No80c203.9$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.78666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40385.3%2 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-74.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62b4…31d3backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82b5…1542backed No71c190.09$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.611546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes35c188.57$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667746.8%36 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes7c175$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127424.3%18 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc887…869bbacked Yes18c165$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.873138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x045c…5861backed No64c160$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.41952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked Yes19c159$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.211020%2 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+183.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeadd…0215backed Yes13c152.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.71822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-47%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa866…6ae6backed Yes8c140$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb64f…6c58backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503915.4%6 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-53.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes26c110.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8211726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6cb9…44f5backed No69c102$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.277121.1%15 W · 56 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe434…a77abacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae05…f5d1backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364126.8%11 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No64c93.75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7510067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2c3…441dbacked Yes12c90.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df3…0dd9backed Yes33c90$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.750%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…96cabacked Yes38c57.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid+25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4c5…0951backed No73c54.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.72425%6 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-64.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb606…cf99backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c57…eb35backed No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.56464.1%41 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+35.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x500e…7c9abacked No60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x433c…3e66backed Yes36c37.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5660%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2323…4c3fbacked Yes35c32.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbdc…5d81backed No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f9f…c934backed No67c25.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-60.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfec…cfabbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.