Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39a1621db3fb8cbb74f9aaf6bbb99b95ff79acf645a07b881a9f39b0857f9930
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 25c | 30,999$7,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,669.8 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 74c | 8,750$6,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.78 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156d…e025backed Yes | 27c | 7,385$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 4c | 6,600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.18 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,083$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x603c…ac70backed Yes | 34c | 3,059$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee72…2b98backed Yes | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 23c | 2,811$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.42 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…2de9backed Yes | 4c | 2,447$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9197…08d4backed No | 75c | 2,240$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.13 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54da…5ea0backed Yes | 35c | 2,237$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…c3aebacked No | 65c | 2,234$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f3…af1dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…2bfcbacked No | 65c | 1,975$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…19aebacked No | 66c | 1,974$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ac…fc03backed Yes | 35c | 1,969$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 27c | 1,945$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.54 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…50e3backed No | 65c | 1,839$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6913…aef4backed Yes | 35c | 1,830$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…2923backed No | 65c | 1,668$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…af1dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,663$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…19febacked Yes | 35c | 1,628$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fa…430ebacked No | 65c | 1,611$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,385$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 1,339$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.53 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,330$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,226$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,112$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 924.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc6…7847backed Yes | 30c | 918.82$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 910$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 13c | 900.21$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a0…511ebacked Yes | 13c | 875.01$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 23c | 865.22$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 25c | 861.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.54 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 67c | 850$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.5 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 25c | 829.01$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.07 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…fcefbacked No | 66c | 827.31$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 25c | 800$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 2c | 779.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 725.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 705.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 24c | 673.54$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…18cabacked Yes | 7c | 551.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…4966backed Yes | 21c | 476$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 23c | 436.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f98…199cbacked Yes | 11c | 399.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes | 39c | 384.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 80c | 362.74$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed No | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 75c | 340$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…208abacked Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…cb2ebacked No | 71c | 280.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…a901backed Yes | 37c | 239.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…64fbbacked Yes | 9c | 232.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed No | 68c | 218.96$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked No | 80c | 203.9$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62b4…31d3backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…1542backed No | 71c | 190.09$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 35c | 188.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 7c | 175$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc887…869bbacked Yes | 18c | 165$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed No | 64c | 160$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Yes | 19c | 159$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +183.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…0215backed Yes | 13c | 152.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa866…6ae6backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…6c58backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 26c | 110.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed No | 69c | 102$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe434…a77abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…441dbacked Yes | 12c | 90.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…0dd9backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…96cabacked Yes | 38c | 57.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…0951backed No | 73c | 54.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb606…cf99backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…3e66backed Yes | 36c | 37.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…4c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 32.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…5d81backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed No | 67c | 25.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfec…cfabbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 22-28?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.