TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 22-28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$481,128
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$411,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $481,128 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd769…f90cbacked No77c32,561$25,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,543.4719535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16f0…a28dbacked Yes61c27,823$17,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,030.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+197.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf74a…a91cbacked Yes13c21,476$2,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,756.2770%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes17c14,415$2,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,453.7837745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7b9…b319backed Yes9c14,325$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.261910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes14c14,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.954839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed No79c13,539$10,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,859.62941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes26c10,999$2,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,875.427123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c9,895$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.761,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes1c9,534$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5823411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f26…d136backed No71c7,724$5,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,234.131968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes5c7,656$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.128021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42d8…2de9backed Yes3c7,144$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-65.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7496…3962backed Yes12c6,751$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8151811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa55e…e04bbacked Yes2c5,994$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc89b…f512backed Yes21c5,962$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.811612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-73%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed No54c4,800$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,207.992152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes21c4,538$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.926026.7%16 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes1c4,219$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.145048%24 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c3,977$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.1164812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes3c3,977$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes24c3,963$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.8522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes2c3,204$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3917229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x20ed…7408backed Yes32c3,110$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.98633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes16c3,076$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.43598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes27c2,870$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.6658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes24c2,799$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.2187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3080…fa4abacked Yes9c2,500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f9…4bc7backed Yes17c2,450$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x157a…cbcabacked Yes5c2,270$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3de…ee7fbacked Yes29c2,079$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes14c2,004$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.412015%3 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No65c1,891$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.8640643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c1,667$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.262999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes2c1,582$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-92.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156d…e025backed Yes61c1,575$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.41315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c1,373$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.846785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe32b…6d74backed Yes15c1,337$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9190%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0f…df30backed Yes36c1,292$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc749…e803backed Yes17c1,193$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051921.1%4 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3360…955bbacked Yes1c1,188$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.594311.6%5 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae45…cce7backed Yes2c1,169$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.37425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d9…bd72backed Yes11c1,134$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes6c1,091$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.241463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes10c1,041$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.251921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c1,001$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.422125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked No75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes4c1,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3790%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+152.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes6c906.86$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.231203.3%4 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef6d…e751backed Yes21c824.57$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes20c780.33$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.682330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes8c742.18$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.631073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Yes17c694.12$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9888…9804backed Yes13c678.04$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcf9…f696backed Yes3c646.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4171…d197backed Yes7c613.46$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43475%3 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.58per pick17cpaid+539.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed No70c609.8$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.8417231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x003e…fc58backed Yes8c599.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1317…769ebacked Yes3c569.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe585…91b5backed No76c528.1$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1282857.1%16 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes14c466$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.381437.7%11 W · 132 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e2f…b5d8backed Yes20c455$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e66…8ca1backed Yes38c448.63$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54e1…54f2backed Yes24c414.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes10c400$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39781.3%1 W · 77 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-86.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100385.3%2 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-74.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75a0…be02backed Yes26c392.46$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.04540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x936f…7f75backed Yes50c366.67$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c41…3ec8backed Yes16c363.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6be8…c29bbacked Yes46c326.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes50c325$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.57746.8%36 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc25…fd96backed Yes25c306.72$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.641612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f9…a28cbacked Yes16c300.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No73c299.89$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.626274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf3da…c238backed Yes5c296.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f55…e528backed Yes11c291.11$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.37119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-81.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x925e…e294backed Yes10c277.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f0…1855backed Yes15c266.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes7c255.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.91382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-86.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes23c250$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.57140.8%29 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x888d…2dd6backed Yes9c245.88$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.051428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes8c239.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.272114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-79.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1d4b…e0f4backed Yes21c239.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.23616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa987…8059backed Yes27c221.16$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.892020%4 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f40…600dbacked Yes17c202.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.69520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfcd…c0f2backed Yes48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes21c182$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.217121.1%15 W · 56 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd805…52c2backed Yes17c176.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305446.3%25 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x433c…3e66backed Yes23c173.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd55d…7484backed Yes17c170$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.93339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5af…8971backed Yes29c166$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1470%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40160%0 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc956…b74dbacked Yes15c155.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceda…4e2fbacked Yes8c146.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0360%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd91d…7fe8backed Yes24c136.08$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed No75c134.31$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.58560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No75c134.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1910067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb46…ca8bbacked Yes13c124.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.96616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-72%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.