Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83db00ca4fe94daed128b21aff9afd3be8339df99371f06a0b82f6ca0c8f7fef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $481,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $489,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $481,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 46c | 51,542$23,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,742.82 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 56c | 14,981$8,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,389.58 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 64c | 14,116$8,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,989.44 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 45c | 9,476$4,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,233.53 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2e70backed No | 31c | 9,211$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,313.04 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 62c | 8,806$5,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,311 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 47c | 7,472$3,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,547.3 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…d136backed Yes | 47c | 6,435$3,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,051.55 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 45c | 5,790$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625.33 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed No | 48c | 5,700$2,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,964 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 31c | 5,644$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.29 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…13d1backed No | 50c | 5,248$2,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…b1afbacked Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.99 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 63c | 4,655$2,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,948.75 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…a91cbacked Yes | 62c | 3,954$2,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,462.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156d…e025backed Yes | 51c | 3,912$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,877$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7496…3962backed No | 32c | 3,675$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,495.66 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 35c | 3,461$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238.38 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 78c | 2,924$2,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.71 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 57c | 2,538$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.17 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…ad9dbacked Yes | 60c | 2,315$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 5c | 2,151$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Yes | 61c | 2,136$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.8 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 58c | 2,027$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.11 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed Yes | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…d400backed Yes | 58c | 1,639$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 50c | 1,359$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.9 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…465fbacked Yes | 64c | 1,200$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 8c | 1,131$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…e648backed No | 29c | 1,056$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…305bbacked Yes | 71c | 1,017$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.67 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4b…8d73backed No | 20c | 999.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.54 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb646…0cf9backed Yes | 24c | 970$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 57c | 788.82$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.63 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…0b73backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…64fbbacked Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3084…e434backed Yes | 46c | 678.89$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…5d81backed No | 45c | 652.38$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 51c | 619.63$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.3 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…1f21backed Yes | 57c | 571.27$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 59c | 542.8$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 32c | 524.69$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.69 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…d5e6backed No | 43c | 508$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…7408backed Yes | 51c | 502.05$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc6…7847backed Yes | 66c | 492.87$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426c…237cbacked Yes | 70c | 435.43$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…3f2ebacked No | 40c | 417.3$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd434…b5debacked No | 40c | 354$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…0215backed Yes | 13c | 347.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…18cabacked Yes | 34c | 341.23$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 41c | 328.34$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.22 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…2366backed Yes | 74c | 280.8$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…c0f2backed No | 35c | 279.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f98…199cbacked Yes | 52c | 274.66$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…cb45backed No | 31c | 260$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.08 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 52c | 246.35$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 8c | 245.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed No | 48c | 241$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…49edbacked Yes | 58c | 239.84$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 29c | 238.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88df…a457backed Yes | 66c | 228.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.26 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe434…a77abacked Yes | 27c | 227.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Yes | 49c | 224.77$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.07 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe321…bc47backed Yes | 35c | 220.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 57c | 214.04$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.9 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf24…52c2backed No | 53c | 207.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…cb2ebacked No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…ee4dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180d…7222backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…8059backed Yes | 59c | 197.63$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.89 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169f…6b96backed Yes | 68c | 196.19$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…9781backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed No | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…bc3bbacked No | 35c | 170.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…27b6backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3215…0e4cbacked Yes | 9c | 166.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…208abacked Yes | 60c | 160$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…9e02backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c41…3ec8backed No | 48c | 155.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…85bcbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52d…3728backed No | 32c | 148.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.78 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…383fbacked No | 77c | 140.9$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…423bbacked No | 37c | 130$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…c3d7backed Yes | 63c | 130$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd43…0699backed Yes | 68c | 130$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d9…a756backed Yes | 63c | 120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…0521backed No | 37c | 120$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…c238backed Yes | 51c | 117$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4b…e0f4backed No | 46c | 110.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b4…31d3backed Yes | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceda…4e2fbacked Yes | 30c | 106.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed Yes | 59c | 102.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9747…478dbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf4…cc11backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…1517backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 22-28?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 22-28?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 22-28?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.