Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Green Bay Phoenix: O/U 144.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf22a03a76935d39c206b619905c7604b0337ff73c5741bee742ef8fcabfc4345
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $593,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $593,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 51c | 575,182$293,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282,006.69 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 49c | 150,000$73,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,500 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Under | 49c | 150,000$73,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,500 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked Under | 49c | 109,218$53,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,517.03 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 49c | 100,000$49,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,000 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 22,500$11,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,025 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 10,163$5,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,047.58 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9c…74b3backed Under | 49c | 7,600$3,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,724 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Under | 50c | 5,555$2,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,777.5 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 50c | 5,053$2,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,544.25 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Under | 50c | 4,736$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.91 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 50c | 4,686$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,342.91 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 49c | 4,400$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Under | 50c | 2,250$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.98 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Under | 49c | 709.66$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.73 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Under | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Under | 51c | 634.12$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.4 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Under | 51c | 576.47$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed Under | 51c | 550$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 454$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.62 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb248…3652backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Under | 51c | 403.96$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 270 | 45.2%122 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Over | 51c | 329.4$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.41 | 222 | 50.9%113 W · 109 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 53c | 322$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.44 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Under | 50c | 316.58$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.29 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…6df7backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…4abfbacked Over | 49c | 168.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Under | 51c | 144.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…e30fbacked Under | 50c | 122.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 50c | 113.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 110.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eca…1531backed Under | 51c | 95.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Under | 50c | 90.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…bc84backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd363…e6d1backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…7afcbacked Under | 51c | 47.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Over | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…86b2backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…238cbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf389…e45dbacked Under | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…8ff5backed Under | 50c | 31.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a67…c830backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 51c | 23.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Under | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Green Bay Phoenix: O/U 144.5this page
- Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Green Bay PhoenixGreen Bay Phoenix won
- Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Green Bay Phoenix: O/U 143.5Over won
- Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Green Bay Phoenix: O/U 145.5Over won
- Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Green Bay Phoenix: O/U 146.5Over won
- Spread: Northern Kentucky Norse (-2.5)Green Bay Phoenix won
- Spread: Northern Kentucky Norse (-3.5)Green Bay Phoenix won
- Spread: Northern Kentucky Norse (-4.5)Green Bay Phoenix won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.