NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x643f6201a66a4fa3536cffae2caf4a740872a683ebf9c39ddde3e33b2cfb2ba2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Netsof Magic, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $403,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $403,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $403,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Magic | 52c | 380,253$197,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197,731.35 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets | 48c | 377,776$181,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196,443.52 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 48c | 9,286$4,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,834.82 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic | 52c | 5,854$3,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,044 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c2…5260backed Magic | 53c | 3,419$1,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.31 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Nets | 48c | 2,145$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.52 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…d171backed Nets | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Nets | 49c | 1,577$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.89 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Magic | 52c | 1,168$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.36 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic | 50c | 1,163$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.55 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Magic | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 51c | 791.61$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Nets | 44c | 435.89$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.2 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…1259backed Magic | 51c | 414$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…1721backed Nets | 50c | 414$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Nets | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 191 | 47.1%90 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nets | 48c | 386.26$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.89 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Magic | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…741ebacked Nets | 50c | 371$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…6494backed Magic | 51c | 371$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Magic | 12c | 360$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Magic | 53c | 305.66$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Magic | 52c | 275$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…04bcbacked Magic | 53c | 256.62$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Magic | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…5826backed Magic | 50c | 244.08$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 548 | 53.8%295 W · 253 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f64…098ebacked Magic | 53c | 243.4$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nets | 49c | 214.88$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.59 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…829bbacked Nets | 49c | 209$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 102 | 70.6%72 W · 30 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Nets | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…a870backed Nets | 50c | 200.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Nets | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic | 50c | 199.96$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Magic | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Nets | 50c | 160.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 51c | 116.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nets | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Magic | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 42c | 87.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ecfabacked Nets | 50c | 79.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Nets | 43c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Magic | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…6df7backed Nets | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Magic | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236a…1a3ebacked Nets | 50c | 53.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Nets | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Nets | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 358 | 44.1%158 W · 200 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Nets | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…5d6fbacked Nets | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 231 | 44.2%102 W · 129 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Nets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 383 | 50.4%193 W · 190 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fe…dbf8backed Nets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d6…f9eabacked Nets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…95debacked Magic | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Magic | 54c | 31.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nets | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)this page
- Magic vs. NetsMagic won
- Magic vs. Nets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Magic vs. Nets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Magic vs. Nets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Magic vs. Nets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Magic vs. Nets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Magic vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.