NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Nets: O/U 222.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4828b4920e66c8434aa16147f51098962ec1035e23c311d7d39651fa803dc9a3

Rebuilt 48 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $86,152
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $86,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,152 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Under	55c	25,122$13,817 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,304.8	404	46.8%189 W · 215 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	49c	10,255$5,025 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,230.1	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	47c	8,939$4,174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,173.5	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a4c…94fdbacked Over	51c	8,100$4,131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,131	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.21per pick	50cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe1ec…55ebbacked Under	49c	8,100$3,969 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,131	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Over	50c	7,500$3,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,750	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over	51c	6,099$3,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,110.64	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed Over	45c	5,333$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,400	173	44.5%77 W · 96 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over	46c	5,000$2,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,280	461	45.6%210 W · 251 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over	48c	4,688$2,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,250	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	45c	3,144$1,415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,414.89	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	55c	2,500$1,375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,125	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	50c	2,292$1,146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,146.12	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e7…52cabacked Over	45c	2,222$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-4.1wins	-0.14per pick	59cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	55c	1,907$1,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$858.15	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	56c	1,591$884 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$706.32	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under	50c	600$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	492	46.3%228 W · 264 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	45c	500$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over	45c	444.44$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	155	43.2%67 W · 88 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	53c	419.24$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.11	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Under	50c	378$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Over	50c	356$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Under	56c	280.5$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.42	206	51%105 W · 101 L	+7.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over	45c	266.67$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	44c	143$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.92	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Under	50c	140.1$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.1	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Over	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	555	33.5%186 W · 369 L	-15.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Under	50c	86.19$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.1	203	53.7%109 W · 94 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb3…0710backed Over	51c	68.63$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Over	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	47.5%84 W · 93 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06d5…0417backed Over	45c	44.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	340	50.3%171 W · 169 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over	45c	36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9050…0a7abacked Over	46c	32.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	183	54.1%99 W · 84 L	+11.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7688…5817backed Over	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x232c…12d7backed Over	50c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Magic vs. Nets: O/U 222.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event