TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Nets: O/U 223.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,370
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,082

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,370 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under52c3,846$2,000 inWon+$1,846.1580737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over48c2,803$1,345 inLost-$1,345.343,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c1,567$739 inLost-$739.059,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under53c1,459$773 inWon+$685.711,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under55c1,249$684 inWon+$564.531,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over7c1,000$72 inLost-$71.611,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over45c1,000$450 inLost-$4504,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over47c444.12$209 inLost-$208.62,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over28c353.14$99 inLost-$98.892,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Over43c287.36$124 inLost-$123.5640952.1%213 W · 196 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Over44c242$106 inLost-$106.4854351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over46c132.32$60 inLost-$60.4793849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over46c130$60 inLost-$59.840146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under78c107.5$84 inWon+$23.4588845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over48c100$48 inLost-$482,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Over11c96.16$10 inLost-$10.1812727.6%35 W · 92 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under71c80.04$57 inWon+$22.838,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over47c80$38 inLost-$37.67142.3%30 W · 41 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Over50c80$40 inLost-$401,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over42c74.81$31 inLost-$31.425,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over47c68$32 inLost-$31.962,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9050…0a7abacked Over50c67.71$34 inLost-$34.1718354.1%99 W · 84 L+11.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under57c57.36$33 inWon+$24.661,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Over43c56.51$24 inLost-$24.1738347%180 W · 203 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4892…27bcbacked Under58c50$29 inWon+$214369.8%30 W · 13 L+6.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+34.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2587…a117backed Under57c47$27 inWon+$20.214247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over46c46.71$22 inLost-$21.623,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under71c46.12$33 inWon+$13.1959141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Under57c44$25 inWon+$18.928151.9%42 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under78c36.45$28 inWon+$8.031,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under56c32.73$18 inWon+$14.421,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under49c26.71$13 inWon+$13.6234053.8%183 W · 157 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dcf…4028backed Over43c24$10 inLost-$10.322634.6%9 W · 17 L-4.9wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-35.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.