Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5ef1008d1316f2df1cab20e51e279bbd02d0775a06eed1b61005fa4c262a23d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1461…22d8backed Yes | 39c | 13,107$5,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,036.25 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 45c | 7,985$3,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,565.46 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…25f8backed No | 76c | 7,967$6,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,080.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 6c | 6,756$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,370.9 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed No | 53c | 4,058$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,000$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,791.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 30cpaid | +562.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf986…bc7dbacked No | 21c | 3,800$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 42c | 3,208$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.13 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 37c | 2,228$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.42 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…68ecbacked No | 31c | 1,744$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33b…2372backed Yes | 71c | 1,653$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.29 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…2df4backed No | 5c | 1,042$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…a577backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.35 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 76c | 908.76$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.97 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…dbfdbacked Yes | 77c | 813.51$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 76c | 785.86$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b06…1088backed No | 55c | 735.32$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5c…6c0fbacked No | 73c | 700$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 20c | 700$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.81 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 11c | 684.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.7 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes | 74c | 629.84$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.02 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd247…b5b3backed Yes | 76c | 527.7$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…4735backed Yes | 25c | 521.5$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.46 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…9926backed Yes | 58c | 517.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc717…35f0backed Yes | 21c | 480.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.77 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 21c | 467.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.97 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x13a0…012dbacked Yes | 72c | 415.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x931e…2a50backed No | 71c | 400$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 9c | 376.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.93 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 31c | 368.48$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.23 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 20c | 349.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.58 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 62c | 342.61$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.88 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 330.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.95 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 6c | 325.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.07 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.08 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.07 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.52 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 74c | 272.12$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.95 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 77c | 260.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 12c | 231.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.03 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 201.58$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.53 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 6c | 201.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.68 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac52…d3febacked Yes | 13c | 197.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +367.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes | 26c | 188.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607a…faeabacked Yes | 68c | 147.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…af16backed No | 25c | 118.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +71%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 115.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8586…1316backed Yes | 18c | 109.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…4531backed Yes | 23c | 108.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…7b76backed Yes | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…891fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8a…a6aabacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…1c48backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d7…4081backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2e…8abfbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…1e52backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 14c | 82.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +306.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47a3…ccedbacked Yes | 58c | 71.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…d5fbbacked Yes | 43c | 69.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…8649backed Yes | 30c | 67.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 43c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked No | 55c | 61.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…526cbacked No | 23c | 50.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948d…d6a8backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa6…cf25backed Yes | 50c | 36.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7c…ff1ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb79…a9a5backed Yes | 44c | 29.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9824…0a56backed Yes | 66c | 27.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81f1…b1ccbacked No | 79c | 18.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 2-8?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 February 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.