Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda1812c9011587df2d11de63658c1d18b1b5deff19f2e075a1301e3d3b1f0780
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 18c | 26,232$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,599.79 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33b…2372backed Yes | 2c | 4,943$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 34c | 4,420$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…bb45backed Yes | 13c | 3,023$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…4c4bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,485$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,413$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…7112backed Yes | 4c | 2,212$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,083$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…65febacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…99dabacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…85d9backed Yes | 12c | 1,620$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 12c | 1,600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c05…ca19backed Yes | 3c | 1,595$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc717…35f0backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa252…dbf4backed Yes | 31c | 1,300$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…3bc3backed No | 74c | 1,231$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,038$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…5aafbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ed…d936backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…bb47backed Yes | 20c | 981.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 6c | 910.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 4c | 866.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 815$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe784…e664backed Yes | 22c | 800$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 5c | 799.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 4c | 786.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fd…4959backed Yes | 21c | 684.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 630.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…230abacked Yes | 11c | 602.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 27c | 600$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked Yes | 25c | 554.89$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…3b60backed Yes | 18c | 541.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 73c | 444$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3377…af60backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 78c | 384.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ed7dbacked Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 318.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 4c | 315.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 29c | 310.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 22c | 310.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…f503backed Yes | 16c | 249$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…55ddbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…af64backed Yes | 22c | 184.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9695…4fe4backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 17c | 166.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc636…074dbacked Yes | 9c | 153.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…2f28backed Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff0…46c9backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 79c | 126.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6379…55e4backed No | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 19c | 124.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…cf28backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 78c | 99.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120f…57c2backed Yes | 17c | 99.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 84.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 80c | 56.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8070…7397backed No | 73c | 31.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 2-8?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 February 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.