Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 February 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x567e245c9934da4694a9861bd8ea94f00e9870346538de21e5b4aeb3d117f8d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2987…47bebacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 36c | 15,626$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,925.66 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2e70backed No | 29c | 13,524$3,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,985.12 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 22c | 12,387$2,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,741.59 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 50c | 6,991$3,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,511.89 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed No | 30c | 6,666$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.8 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…22d8backed Yes | 74c | 5,784$4,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.5 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 4c | 4,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.67 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 36c | 2,512$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.82 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 44c | 2,450$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.86 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.99 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 1,902$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.81 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 53c | 1,351$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.71 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…5d23backed Yes | 39c | 1,296$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.31 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked No | 69c | 1,234$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.46 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…bb47backed Yes | 52c | 1,161$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.98 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf75b…6158backed No | 17c | 765.89$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…015cbacked Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 53c | 573.37$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.35 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 30cpaid | +562.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 34c | 411.76$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.76 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Yes | 61c | 394.79$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 37c | 267.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.57 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…6f48backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked No | 64c | 249.63$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 38c | 236.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0d…45bfbacked No | 5c | 215$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2d…601bbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…132bbacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 60c | 191.75$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 42c | 190.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 10c | 188.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b12…a77ebacked No | 66c | 186.2$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb262…4018backed No | 18c | 177.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532c…5e00backed Yes | 35c | 148.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 48c | 146.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…c7bdbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1891…8852backed No | 15c | 95.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 95.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 39c | 91.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…2ee0backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 29cpaid | +289.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…6a3abacked Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…86fcbacked Yes | 60c | 61.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…f4a7backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…39eebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff5…e5e0backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 55c | 45.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…60adbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 40c | 39.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1739…1263backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 February 2-8?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 February 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.