TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 2-8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$258,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$270,905

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,481 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x91b7…08afbacked No0c45,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e2e…8abfbacked No0c20,500$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf12d…9a0cbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa1…9182backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1461…22d8backed Yes53c7,368$3,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,465.92777.8%21 W · 6 L+7.0wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No39c5,929$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.158126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No54c4,634$2,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,508.665444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes7c4,600$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,282.51361.5%8 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick30cpaid+562.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No61c4,452$2,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700.687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed No28c3,000$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.393312.1%4 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes10c2,020$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,820.496723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes24c1,653$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.8912129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed No4c1,568$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.966613.6%9 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dba…b54dbacked Yes23c1,425$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.21675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+48.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3335…5c3fbacked No28c1,083$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8230…a577backed Yes6c1,053$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.634425%11 W · 33 L+7.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+241.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x05cb…f625backed Yes5c1,025$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.822213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+141.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No32c1,000$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.94136.6%15 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8212…5933backed Yes7c941.18$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.183743.2%16 W · 21 L+8.1wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+189.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c876.12$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.511,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c834.5$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8764812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No19c720.22$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.512417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed No26c710.28$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.093630.6%11 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+111.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed No16c699.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid+24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b09…1e52backed No17c650$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12b2…dbfdbacked Yes79c625.7$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.415100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fdc…8703backed No35c575.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc1…ea30backed No22c539.08$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+96.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes30c433.65$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.172445.8%11 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+346.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed No73c400$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2922572%18 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081c…308bbacked Yes24c396.14$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.128327.7%23 W · 60 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bdc…e8b0backed No40c390.06$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.942356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+24.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc18…fa1abacked Yes65c384.85$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf946…5e63backed No16c383.3$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed No54c373.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba05…8f30backed Yes15c357.47$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.02825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes54c355.03$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.7334848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da8…8d72backed Yes21c350$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.852100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+209.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No64c312.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-37.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f10…ef9abacked No7c300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed No19c285.09$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.211726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No57c281.55$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.297330.1%22 W · 51 L-18.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x2486…3f73backed No70c265.2$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb056…40e1backed Yes30c265.2$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+237.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked No53c263.16$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404242.9%18 W · 24 L-8.8wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-39.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes38c260.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.443644.4%16 W · 20 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+177.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x298b…066fbacked Yes11c250$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.5650%3 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+641.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc9f2…132bbacked Yes50c200.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.811250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed No8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed No73c199.99$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.194658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No79c185.82$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2716537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes10c159.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.253625%9 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8efa…afb4backed Yes19c156.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick16cpaid+201.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked No40c120.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.669940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes72c107.67$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.673050%15 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9112…7797backed Yes78c107.55$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.984553.3%24 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes14c102.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.522999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89c4…249abacked No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47a3…ccedbacked Yes79c96.17$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.06837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb17…2ae4backed Yes39c77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.976100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+77%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes45c74.2$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5926274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x5874…05f7backed Yes68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.998765.5%57 W · 30 L+7.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1505…a5e8backed No41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.883652.8%19 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7c5…be7abacked No77c57.14$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked No70c56.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40875%6 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1b…e318backed Yes42c51.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71fe…6a3abacked Yes78c51.48$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.48966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+43.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00b2…cf16backed Yes31c48.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+112.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5379…a031backed Yes59c48.01$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6910555.2%58 W · 47 L+11.7wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+24.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes77c45.6$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x573b…d5fbbacked Yes50c30.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+59.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c24…d6c3backed No70c25.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…4a93backed Yes78c22.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf366…9ad8backed No79c19.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.