Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd45848b2095031ce22f20763d5b428c50bff7e28270e94a1205ed845046bcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $270,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91b7…08afbacked No | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2e…8abfbacked No | 0c | 20,500$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…9a0cbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa1…9182backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…22d8backed Yes | 53c | 7,368$3,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,465.9 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 39c | 5,929$2,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,335.1 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 54c | 4,634$2,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,508.66 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,600$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,282.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 30cpaid | +562.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 61c | 4,452$2,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.6 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed No | 28c | 3,000$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.39 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,020$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.49 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 24c | 1,653$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.89 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed No | 4c | 1,568$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…b54dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,425$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…5c3fbacked No | 28c | 1,083$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…a577backed Yes | 6c | 1,053$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.63 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05cb…f625backed Yes | 5c | 1,025$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.82 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 32c | 1,000$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.9 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 7c | 941.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.18 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +189.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 876.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.51 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 834.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.87 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 19c | 720.22$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.51 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed No | 26c | 710.28$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.09 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed No | 16c | 699.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…1e52backed No | 17c | 650$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…dbfdbacked Yes | 79c | 625.7$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.41 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…8703backed No | 35c | 575.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc1…ea30backed No | 22c | 539.08$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 30c | 433.65$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.17 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +346.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 24c | 396.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.12 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdc…e8b0backed No | 40c | 390.06$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.94 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc18…fa1abacked Yes | 65c | 384.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…5e63backed No | 16c | 383.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed No | 54c | 373.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…8f30backed Yes | 15c | 357.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 54c | 355.03$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.73 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da8…8d72backed Yes | 21c | 350$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +209.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 64c | 312.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…ef9abacked No | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed No | 19c | 285.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 57c | 281.55$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.29 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2486…3f73backed No | 70c | 265.2$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb056…40e1backed Yes | 30c | 265.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +237.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 53c | 263.16$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 38c | 260.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.44 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…066fbacked Yes | 11c | 250$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +641.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…132bbacked Yes | 50c | 200.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed No | 73c | 199.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.19 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 185.82$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 10c | 159.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.25 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…afb4backed Yes | 19c | 156.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 16cpaid | +201.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked No | 40c | 120.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 72c | 107.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed Yes | 78c | 107.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 14c | 102.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c4…249abacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a3…ccedbacked Yes | 79c | 96.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb17…2ae4backed Yes | 39c | 77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 45c | 74.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…be7abacked No | 77c | 57.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 70c | 56.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1b…e318backed Yes | 42c | 51.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…6a3abacked Yes | 78c | 51.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…cf16backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 59c | 48.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes | 77c | 45.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…d5fbbacked Yes | 50c | 30.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…d6c3backed No | 70c | 25.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…4a93backed Yes | 78c | 22.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf366…9ad8backed No | 79c | 19.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 2-8?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 February 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 February 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.