TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$581,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$562,614

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $581,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes0c103,723$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2751361.5%8 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick30cpaid+562.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes34c30,752$10,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,437.9328021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes23c21,889$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes2c14,978$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.787123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6169…e8e0backed Yes3c12,739$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes9c11,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99012025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20f7…382bbacked Yes4c10,993$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.32120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No75c10,121$7,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,485.2837745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca1…7181backed No53c10,000$5,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,702.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+406%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No74c9,329$6,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,393.5958126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…0f5ebacked Yes5c8,616$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.7742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick10cpaid+274.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe14b…1ad3backed No18c7,665$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,265.633633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c76…a1b5backed Yes5c7,594$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.27425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+318.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c7,412$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.111,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986b…56bcbacked No28c7,142$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,142.242528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1461…22d8backed No74c6,627$4,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.062777.8%21 W · 6 L+7.0wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes1c5,985$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.94432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-92.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0066…394fbacked Yes33c5,903$1,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.646119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf986…bc7dbacked No20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0001533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes4c4,897$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc717…35f0backed Yes14c4,031$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.041421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3761…bb47backed Yes23c3,791$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.56615.2%10 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes47c3,688$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.9122550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes0c3,506$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.731970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes10c3,503$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.1214019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e18…4c4bbacked Yes3c3,456$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1460%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes80c3,150$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5201233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c3,096$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.056785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes6c3,001$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0723411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0335…ae81backed Yes1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No36c3,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.994050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c2,872$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8212…5933backed Yes3c2,537$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753743.2%16 W · 21 L+8.1wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+189.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0db6…d3fbbacked Yes3c2,248$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9822…c7d0backed Yes4c2,200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+54.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd609…40f4backed Yes12c2,129$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250496.1%3 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Yes44c2,011$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.851650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes4c1,909$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.681067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ed…d936backed Yes5c1,876$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b99…1cd7backed Yes12c1,743$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.181010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes4c1,676$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.481285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6b1…fb4bbacked Yes3c1,665$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes4c1,607$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.232683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a8…f9e3backed Yes2c1,573$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+126.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes5c1,523$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.983998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes54c1,481$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8003542.9%15 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+109.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes4c1,437$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.761375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c1,430$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.962999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5302…208abacked Yes4c1,400$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.832250%11 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f64…792bbacked Yes2c1,356$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-86.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes4c1,313$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.52528%7 W · 18 L-6.0wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-46.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes3c1,282$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1413117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Yes18c1,258$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.423630.6%11 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+111.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c1,239$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.072417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf60b…ff5fbacked Yes23c1,013$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.551145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec68…a36fbacked Yes3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.23520%7 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes42c1,000$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4153938.5%15 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224c…ee07backed Yes5c996.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503020%6 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+142.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes4c888.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.34147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes13c827.75$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.623625%9 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes4c778.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.133212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f72…230abacked Yes7c737$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.59185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-82.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x34d6…df14backed Yes22c700$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes34c589.49$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1431523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes28c581.31$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e1…f503backed Yes43c562.99$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.71955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+148.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf97f…4b2dbacked Yes4c539.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f14…3b19backed Yes2c533.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce00…2702backed Yes2c532.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c28…12dabacked Yes2c522.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…5aafbacked Yes19c515$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes24c505$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.758521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c487.78$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7664812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6c27…494bbacked Yes5c467.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.03283.6%1 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-81.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes46c458.91$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2112744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes14c432.66$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.611437.7%11 W · 132 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb2d…835dbacked Yes5c415.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Yes36c414.8$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.337767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa46…25f4backed Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28850%4 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+61%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c24…d6c3backed Yes11c380.56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No53c373.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.997330.1%22 W · 51 L-18.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0xa9e2…b8b5backed Yes21c347.86$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.052218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…de81backed Yes34c310.9$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.215637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f45…97cebacked Yes46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1381338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x528d…4585backed Yes4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8596…39eebacked Yes74c300$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d79…3690backed No19c300$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick23cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8473…0e99backed Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes75c296.49$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2223050%15 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cd9…e02ebacked Yes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+127.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ff7…85d9backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x73ec…4735backed Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463514.3%5 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-48.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8408…5dcabacked Yes13c192.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+276.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc43…1c86backed Yes11c179.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-83.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes9c174.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.175514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick15cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2fd…4959backed Yes10c170$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a9…25d5backed No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed No46c152.17$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.177746.8%36 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52a0…eee7backed No33c151.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+61.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No31c149.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.494650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.