TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,468 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes22c18,258$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No74c6,448$4,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.5558126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c76…a1b5backed Yes24c6,265$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.14425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+318.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca5…8727backed Yes4c5,313$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.514515.6%7 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+280.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8cb…f4c6backed Yes4c4,795$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-54.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a3f…7112backed Yes11c4,541$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5102512%3 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…22d8backed No75c4,318$3,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.072777.8%21 W · 6 L+7.0wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No60c4,126$2,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,647.874050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa252…dbf4backed Yes44c4,098$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7703312.1%4 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e18…4c4bbacked Yes2c2,755$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes18c2,500$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.7923411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No56c2,467$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.584858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No52c2,399$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.727163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f69…d657backed Yes23c2,236$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.32728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick9cpaid+184.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c9…65febacked Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa996…99dabacked Yes5c2,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.92913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes44c1,958$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.546026.7%16 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes12c1,900$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.963013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,827$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.186785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes6c1,553$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a62…66b8backed Yes3c1,509$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc717…35f0backed Yes16c1,300$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes31c1,227$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.4122550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,215$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.981,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes5c1,105$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.333998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc0…dc99backed No50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6d…4e71backed Yes3c925.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c895.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.962999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe784…e664backed Yes42c800$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3322626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes3c769.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.81375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes3c745.23$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.032683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes3c720.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.861285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe46…721cbacked Yes23c710$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+216.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c677.19$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7664812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No55c666$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.713770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes4c603.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.791067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2fd…4959backed Yes16c600$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes28c554.34$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1536723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3e1…f503backed Yes27c503.39$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.47955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+148.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes14c496.55$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.743625%9 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f64…792bbacked Yes5c492.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.96166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-86.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed No79c465.06$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2134848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ff7…85d9backed Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56cf…6169backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes12c379.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455111.8%6 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No78c308$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2926274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xc80b…4d0bbacked Yes5c301.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xace5…4457backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4f…f1e0backed No71c295.77$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.77580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+83.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes29c280.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Yes18c270$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.733630.6%11 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+111.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes10c244.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2931523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3761…bb47backed Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006615.2%10 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47b0…3b60backed Yes30c203.32$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602313%3 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34d6…df14backed Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a02…e4eabacked No50c198.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No78c192.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3110067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No69c190$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.57330.1%22 W · 51 L-18.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0xd55d…7484backed Yes42c180$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.63339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72a1…026dbacked No58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe52d…3728backed No58c130$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.62254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6379…55e4backed No67c130$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0066…394fbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17cb…d67cbacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2121651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c24…d6c3backed Yes12c99.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc636…074dbacked Yes17c94.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59f6…2f2ebacked No55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.91475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+37.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14d7…a718backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes22c74.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.757424.3%18 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb42…6367backed No67c67.06$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked Yes25c47.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd68b…7e7dbacked Yes48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed No70c38.92$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.825048%24 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9695…4fe4backed Yes53c37.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd7…49f5backed No75c37.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.454100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06b6…1332backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x415a…7acbbacked No78c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.04850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.