TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,587

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,112 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f5f…7e41backed Yes0c6,850$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa6e…929dbacked Yes0c6,287$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.79922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes4c3,272$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes3c2,046$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.893,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes13c2,027$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.282,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed80…0022backed Yes2c1,608$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes18c1,458$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.4988628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes9c1,241$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9543021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3f0…024dbacked Yes4c870.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c827.45$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.592,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes21c671.62$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes16c404.81$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.132548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b82…c4e7backed Yes7c280$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked No72c278.66$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6119461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes27c248.63$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.711,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes31c239$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2235843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Yes27c233.07$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.221631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x726c…e6f0backed Yes38c210.45$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.977936.7%29 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No68c203.78$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6291967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes47c179.19$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5629459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes22c169.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0193034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No68c163.53$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.992,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes28c159.95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7910650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes34c154.78$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.891,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x093a…1b3fbacked No65c154.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.321973.7%14 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes8c143.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.054630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes12c139.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.231,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c122.03$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.957,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…c4c5backed Yes42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11c0…f014backed Yes36c110.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.882437.5%9 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xecaa…34d2backed No70c107.74$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.746674.2%49 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes12c106.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8834618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes28c100.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1e…1dc1backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8744…3d64backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+29.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7523633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes34c89.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.59812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes34c87.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5710235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c84.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes19c72.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.097,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes35c70.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.452,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No61c66.08$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7752245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes44c65.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9735432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa537…e569backed No69c62.04$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.481090%9 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick67cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes31c62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2225029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No75c60.03$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9927376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No57c58.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.281,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes28c58.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6954232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04bb…b3b7backed Yes41c58.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes35c57.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf864…496fbacked No67c55.62$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.369643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes46c54.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0928737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked No78c51.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2957659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2c1…d67cbacked No59c50.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.77475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No68c50.48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1312564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x517e…4fb2backed No67c50.35$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.439076.7%69 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe085…cd9abacked Yes37c45.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed Yes26c43.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.283435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x775c…28a9backed No65c42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.78964%57 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf19d…9afabacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.24129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfad4…379bbacked Yes49c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.623324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes37c37.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.934,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x953a…9dedbacked No62c37.83$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes28c36.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2411044.5%49 W · 61 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d91…42c3backed Yes33c33.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No63c33.02$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.161,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed No60c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.87347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1726…1ad4backed No72c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.826753.7%36 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf465…8a3bbacked No68c31.19$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.044080%32 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd22b…acfcbacked Yes40c30.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.811855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x686b…5de0backed Yes40c27.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes42c27.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2834651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No69c26.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.193,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd76c…7c92backed No61c24.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.67825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x594e…408dbacked No66c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7088…0086backed No69c21.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.659534.7%33 W · 62 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf413…3f6cbacked No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.25862.1%36 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.44,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.856265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef65…d64fbacked No62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8419171.7%137 W · 54 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1345…e4debacked No71c15.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.667676.3%58 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.