TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on February 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,638
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,439

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,638 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3899…cabebacked No0c5,035$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed80…0022backed No1c2,503$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No12c2,295$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27359742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xb1b5…60d5backed Yes44c1,496$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.161330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No5c1,444$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes69c1,426$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.7916738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No20c1,025$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.8788628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes62c908.77$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.3534651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No6c895.82$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.751,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes51c807.05$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.711930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed No12c802.43$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1441845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7482…6cf6backed Yes76c756.9$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.283534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f0…024dbacked No3c721.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No60c703.21$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42031262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6077…8a56backed No65c542.43$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010956.9%62 W · 47 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes46c512.07$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.971,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c497.3$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes44c475.44$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.084,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No67c458.42$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.671650%8 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c422.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.772,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed Yes77c386.49$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.4861760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc3ff…9adbbacked No7c378.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.48728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+238.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No6c359.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked No69c348.62$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.4210235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes60c240$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5335843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes67c216.92$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.2135432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe693…e18dbacked No58c214.07$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No24c206.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No58c205.8$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4691967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes37c182.06$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.77,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b9…3296backed No12c162.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5511129.7%33 W · 78 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No31c161.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c156.43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b3…487cbacked Yes39c153.84$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.842828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes42c143.07$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.42,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No59c141.58$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.223,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No17c131.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.934617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b82…c4e7backed No46c113.51$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No31c110$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8744…3d64backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+29.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes26c99.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.995129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes21c99.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.172,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11c0…f014backed No65c97.85$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.452437.5%9 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes65c97.22$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8716432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No65c96.26$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5719148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes69c96.02$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8529459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No58c94.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.351,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed No54c92.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5084…fb85backed Yes15c90$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.21526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick17cpaid+69.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes12c88.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.551,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8209…62b6backed Yes18c80.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.289625%24 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e6a…5192backed No62c80.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe599…0dd3backed No62c80.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4014338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78eb…5134backed No77c80$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6850%4 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes17c78.35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9555919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes24c77.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.125536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes42c76.54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes59c73$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.611,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No20c70.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.347,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes43c69.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7636057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes58c68.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9652245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked Yes41c68.59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.743737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf864…496fbacked No53c66.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.769643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed No62c65.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.837347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No76c65.33$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.392,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes74c63.93$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8157659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes63c62.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8425362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No48c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No55c58.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.043,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes26c56.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7279255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa537…e569backed Yes44c53.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.851090%9 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick67cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes28c52.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8229469.7%205 W · 89 L+26.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ed3…0fe3backed No58c52.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-49.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ca4…817ebacked Yes36c52.07$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c52.04$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.231,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes59c50.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.931,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4122…6c07backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2828737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524710.9%27 W · 220 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.534633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes73c45.44$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2773927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0da…2342backed No77c45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.653974.4%29 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes31c42.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4381029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…85d4backed Yes35c42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.098256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…a398backed Yes56c41.85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No25c41.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.321,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No72c41.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d91…42c3backed Yes44c40.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.772454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1726…1ad4backed No47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.896753.7%36 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa8e…31c0backed Yes66c39.18$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.181241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+49.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9c4…e119backed Yes29c38.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.528940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes72c38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7921448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Yes44c37.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.992065%13 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Yes74c35.8$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.181631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes68c35.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2661659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes57c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.115862.1%36 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No72c34.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No54c33.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1999961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes45c31.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4433620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.