Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9653378076a73653b3e7d9cc21775ea6d22218ceff21ef8acb7f2b4afd31e6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 8,100$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.77 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,821$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 22c | 3,383$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,647.89 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 20c | 2,194$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.76 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 29c | 1,526$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.93 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed Yes | 49c | 1,350$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.85 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 54c | 1,322$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.41 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 47c | 1,203$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.55 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 4c | 1,114$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 869.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 12c | 699.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 649.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.39 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 604.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 4c | 564.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 24c | 561.81$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.23 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…6b12backed Yes | 9c | 556.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…4d7abacked Yes | 78c | 499.99$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 497.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 66c | 453.13$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.47 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…c252backed No | 47c | 348.57$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.28 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked No | 68c | 320.41$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.59 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 320$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Yes | 3c | 320$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Yes | 37c | 290$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6e…b6eebacked Yes | 6c | 253.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 24c | 241.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.07 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 42c | 230.48$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 11c | 203.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 31c | 150.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Yes | 29c | 147$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 74c | 139.15$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 32c | 124.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…1241backed Yes | 60c | 121.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 121.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 113.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked No | 44c | 112.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x316c…0194backed No | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x580e…2685backed Yes | 11c | 103.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 55c | 101.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 76c | 92.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 71c | 69.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 26c | 66.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…ec7dbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d7…9600backed Yes | 59c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0158…75a5backed No | 20c | 55.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…bc71backed Yes | 41c | 51.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed No | 44c | 46.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 65c | 42.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7443…357fbacked No | 44c | 36.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 65c | 30.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bc…a72bbacked Yes | 75c | 26.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…a5b1backed No | 79c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ad…ec38backed Yes | 60c | 21.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf684…adf5backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 70c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.