Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb42eccb75d6e7b13781c2908478b897faeb5ce4e4a1d7cab3db9c5638803b84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6396…aff3backed Yes | 1c | 15,654$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,050$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…73f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,078$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 406.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 3c | 394.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ac…f401backed Yes | 52c | 282.16$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 16c | 207.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 61c | 202.44$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…6b12backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…6cf6backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 77c | 168.37$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 31c | 127.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 121.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbe…39b6backed Yes | 34c | 116.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 100.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 78.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 35c | 77.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 58.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 48.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 34c | 46.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…dc8fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 39.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 65c | 38.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 79c | 38.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 62c | 33.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…5607backed No | 74c | 23.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 22.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…6ef3backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…4e79backed No | 71c | 14.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.