Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x498e720b331e5cfddda17f2042dff870803ca4a75f58929ae1ed55ecf7667c6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 11c | 13,043$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,610.52 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 6,944$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,463.55 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 14c | 6,413$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,488.06 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 80c | 2,789$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.82 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 4c | 1,760$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,654$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.31 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 20c | 1,464$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.42 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed No | 2c | 1,149$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,141$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 952.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.95 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 899.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8e…31c0backed Yes | 10c | 895.53$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 7c | 893.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 16c | 820.86$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.76 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 76c | 755.71$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.41 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed No | 5c | 725.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 672.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.59 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 2c | 619.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 573.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ac…f401backed Yes | 58c | 562.62$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0f…b525backed No | 7c | 504.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 3c | 493.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.11 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 15c | 482.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.16 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbe…39b6backed Yes | 11c | 472.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 29c | 468.25$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.54 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…6b12backed Yes | 38c | 460$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.4 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…4d7abacked No | 69c | 399.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e67…5971backed No | 3c | 358.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbd…0351backed No | 3c | 346.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9243…ee8cbacked Yes | 59c | 307.99$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked No | 35c | 290$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8b…4eb1backed Yes | 7c | 270$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 17c | 255.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.24 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 9c | 222.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.65 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 205.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 6c | 190.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 21c | 186.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.92 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 6c | 167.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.37 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6e…929dbacked No | 8c | 165.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 56c | 149.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 42c | 144.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 119.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 49c | 93.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…e1ddbacked Yes | 41c | 84.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7443…357fbacked Yes | 30c | 81.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa309…8427backed No | 14c | 77.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a8…9baabacked No | 22c | 75.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0788…c9dcbacked No | 73c | 73.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -5.6wins | -0.43per pick | 74cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 45c | 68.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd27…0af7backed No | 32c | 61.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d7…9600backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3be4…009abacked Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 59.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 26c | 58.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 30c | 58.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…1241backed No | 54c | 52.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb66a…32c7backed No | 80c | 52.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 51c | 44.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 48c | 41.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 66c | 26.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed No | 80c | 25.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 71c | 22.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 59c | 21.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579b…fb02backed Yes | 76c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 70c | 14.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.