Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x691ff86f54586cf96730b04f7dee8298f60b372a5ae52cbf5568b35bed3a5d25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bb9…9dbabacked Yes | 3c | 757.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Yes | 24c | 238.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 160.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ac…f401backed Yes | 16c | 156.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 143.21$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…1b3fbacked No | 75c | 92.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6e…cd39backed Yes | 14c | 91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…9d96backed Yes | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 74.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 21c | 62.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 27c | 50.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 44.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 42.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 75c | 27.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 72c | 20.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 15.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 75c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…5d86backed No | 80c | 12.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.