Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04474496abd26d0c38e8e0ffd386556b8674f3707495000970778b37275b268d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d1…9762backed No | 0c | 11,520$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 504.88$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.53 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 340.44$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed Yes | 32c | 238.78$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.2 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 42c | 168.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 58c | 167.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 162.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 154.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 32c | 153.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…4d30backed Yes | 18c | 120.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 117.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 15c | 108.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 15c | 96.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 12c | 96.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 41c | 90.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 88.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 46c | 84.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 69.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad41…d390backed Yes | 34c | 67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 63.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…c3e6backed No | 67c | 57.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 24c | 52.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…3ce8backed No | 76c | 51.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 35c | 50.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…ccf6backed Yes | 65c | 49.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 53c | 47.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 35c | 44.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 66c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 29c | 41.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 54c | 38.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2007…5cccbacked Yes | 30c | 38.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 38.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed No | 71c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 34c | 37.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 38c | 36.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7b…1357backed No | 69c | 34.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…115fbacked No | 75c | 33.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…d8edbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeea9…3a27backed No | 70c | 25.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957c…2965backed No | 69c | 23.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…bc3abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…0506backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…dafabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 71c | 19.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…42a4backed No | 65c | 18.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 60c | 16.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.