Commodities · resolved market
Silver (SI) Up or Down on January 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4010d255b3e90c97fb86d2f871ea6ae708036da24586a5a5d5f4f1fecb7a6383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Down | 2c | 609.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…0325backed Down | 31c | 384.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…3c98backed Up | 71c | 300.14$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Up | 69c | 160.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Down | 6c | 156.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed Up | 68c | 153.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Down | 29c | 139.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Up | 67c | 115$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Down | 31c | 97.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Down | 32c | 66.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…5df3backed Up | 68c | 51.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…8ba8backed Up | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…bf9abacked Up | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab4b…c82bbacked Up | 68c | 43.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8c…03abbacked Up | 77c | 39.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed Up | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…782bbacked Up | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…1529backed Up | 68c | 25.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe2…0dd8backed Up | 70c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.