AI · resolved market
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f4f68f3f07b3e6cb3bc00a154e8ec4802723aa2c5b362c5b002e0fc34aba4dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 10c | 999.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed No | 1c | 882.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 23c | 875.54$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 2c | 791.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.78 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…1e2ebacked Yes | 75c | 662.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 2c | 499.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.97 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 76c | 395.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5299…f785backed Yes | 73c | 366.98$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked No | 25c | 339.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 62c | 327.83$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…fd06backed Yes | 18c | 278.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…664cbacked Yes | 75c | 267.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…d390backed Yes | 18c | 261.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +465%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 78c | 256.81$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…ba71backed No | 5c | 234.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 27c | 185.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.06 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6273…95c8backed Yes | 17c | 154.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +73%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…73babacked No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…df75backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 124.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 19c | 120.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…7030backed Yes | 80c | 117.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked Yes | 26c | 113.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00b6…e4e1backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…8d04backed No | 80c | 99.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…9f15backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +229.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 97.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 20c | 91.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f0…3377backed Yes | 27c | 80.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +271.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c8…b057backed Yes | 20c | 74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +247.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2eb1backed Yes | 80c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb9…8ac9backed Yes | 80c | 62.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 59c | 57.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x794b…9f51backed Yes | 44c | 57.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9574backed Yes | 36c | 55.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…31febacked Yes | 75c | 46.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 76c | 42.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xee53…7d97backed Yes | 74c | 40.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…5d99backed Yes | 30c | 40.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…e1e2backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ca…05e9backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…2a29backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac3d…660cbacked No | 71c | 28.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b8…1133backed Yes | 74c | 27.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9492…3c58backed Yes | 80c | 25.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0158…ab29backed Yes | 80c | 21.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked No | 80c | 18.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 72c | 17.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x85e7…dd06backed No | 69c | 17.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…7014backed Yes | 74c | 17.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ce…f65fbacked Yes | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…97cbbacked No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb2…0e92backed Yes | 75c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…c88ebacked No | 72c | 15.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…da8bbacked No | 77c | 14.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…f38abacked No | 75c | 14.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…f11abacked Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7862…3a98backed No | 75c | 13.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?No won
- Will Grok be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.