AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffdd2386cecd3a6b53668aae205bc8d5ad8073913c1617e02c5abd142d6d8cd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 46c | 2,481$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.86 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 32c | 1,482$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.78 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 15c | 1,350$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.31 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 47c | 1,160$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.67 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 10c | 905.03$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.23 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db9…3a33backed Yes | 78c | 799.79$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 15c | 754.44$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.82 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 48c | 688.22$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.85 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 57c | 624.85$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…dedabacked Yes | 58c | 622.71$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 56c | 596.64$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.77 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 22c | 590$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.2 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 41c | 495.32$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.24 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 25c | 463.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.1 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 50c | 425.85$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.47 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb340…1ab9backed Yes | 53c | 413.93$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 350$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.9 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed Yes | 39c | 299.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…8d04backed Yes | 31c | 299.88$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dda…8a99backed No | 60c | 290$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd987…9930backed Yes | 40c | 290$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c3…9e1cbacked No | 42c | 290$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5e…e1d6backed Yes | 58c | 290$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 22c | 262.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xfff4…b054backed Yes | 66c | 240.47$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf54e…b728backed No | 57c | 229.29$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 46c | 228.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.73 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a50ebacked Yes | 68c | 222.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9177…8b30backed Yes | 17c | 217.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ba…88b1backed No | 50c | 199.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 179.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…748cbacked Yes | 59c | 169.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2f47backed Yes | 51c | 157.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 60c | 155.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…8d53backed No | 48c | 153$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…082fbacked Yes | 52c | 153$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…3ea8backed No | 60c | 133.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b65…a081backed Yes | 76c | 131.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…c6d4backed Yes | 53c | 127.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af3…fbe5backed Yes | 78c | 118.36$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c77…ac1cbacked No | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +301.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 38c | 113.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac3d…660cbacked Yes | 63c | 111.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…7b0bbacked Yes | 45c | 110.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63b…4e0fbacked Yes | 67c | 109.96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…b6debacked Yes | 58c | 108.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…fab0backed Yes | 59c | 101.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…77cfbacked No | 49c | 101$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…8feebacked Yes | 51c | 101$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c26…7a7abacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…015dbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…966fbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf72…74fcbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 52c | 98.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 34c | 88.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…cd2dbacked Yes | 58c | 85.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…7180backed Yes | 24c | 83.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2c…3fb4backed Yes | 61c | 82.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f22…c4e9backed Yes | 55c | 81.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 80.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6273…95c8backed No | 36c | 77.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +73%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…c472backed Yes | 53c | 75.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…7102backed Yes | 80c | 74.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 35c | 73.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb832…3408backed Yes | 63c | 68.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 74c | 61.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 42c | 55.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 44c | 54.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2eb1backed Yes | 49c | 53.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd25…dadcbacked No | 46c | 51.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…31febacked Yes | 58c | 50.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287b…6082backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…96febacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…b3ffbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7d…0612backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 48.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6819…3775backed No | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…da5ebacked No | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…b662backed Yes | 56c | 44.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 60c | 43.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…c8d7backed Yes | 29c | 42.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…8a58backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9574backed Yes | 45c | 39.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked No | 42c | 37.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…6a63backed Yes | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…d1c7backed Yes | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 45c | 36.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…919dbacked No | 43c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x779d…169fbacked Yes | 72c | 33.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b17…e942backed Yes | 72c | 33.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…5184backed Yes | 76c | 31.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…d70bbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeff…4309backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…51acbacked Yes | 58c | 28.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x589f…4046backed Yes | 62c | 28.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?Yes won
- Will Grok be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.