AI · resolved market
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeff56e249df988aa1f3ab420f4d53499acc0a78969745079487b6e07e3af3e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 10c | 2,005$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.47 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 27c | 791.78$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 548.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked Yes | 20c | 531.06$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…ab18backed Yes | 38c | 520.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2eb1backed Yes | 22c | 360.51$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 10c | 284.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6273…95c8backed Yes | 26c | 255.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +73%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 79c | 235.51$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 15c | 207.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…8d04backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c26…7a7abacked Yes | 17c | 179.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 8c | 164.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 129.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 20c | 92.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 90.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…c8d7backed Yes | 13c | 83.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5299…f785backed No | 80c | 52.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked No | 79c | 32.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?No won
- Will Grok be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.