AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2dd6ae27790dae698b1059d2693336978d791c6af7ce5e8c08918e5a9639492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 12c | 4,775$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.28 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…188dbacked No | 12c | 3,005$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 43c | 1,693$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.41 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 11c | 1,586$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.36 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 1,126$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 65c | 769.45$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.13 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 460.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 218 | 13.3%29 W · 189 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 11c | 438.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 4c | 346.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 21c | 301.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 4c | 295.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 12c | 263.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…3763backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +175.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 30c | 189.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.52 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 162.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1,368 | 6.8%93 W · 1,275 L | -20.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked Yes | 73c | 159.22$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 13c | 131.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 80c | 130.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 125.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 898 | 17%153 W · 745 L | -146.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…296abacked Yes | 75c | 119.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f8…7abdbacked Yes | 20c | 101$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 19c | 94.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa652…88debacked Yes | 80c | 81.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…f742backed No | 65c | 77.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 36c | 70.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…9854backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked Yes | 75c | 64.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 78c | 64.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…175abacked Yes | 63c | 34.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…64c1backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…c299backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1b…6e2dbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.