TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,912
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,912 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes28c2,060$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.9311930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d4c…830abacked Yes1c2,038$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.59614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x156d…90f4backed Yes5c1,922$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes14c1,642$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.842,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa94…3601backed Yes43c1,392$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6045125.5%13 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes2c1,106$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.315129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed No68c1,101$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.931442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+48%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes33c610.23$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.41,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb150…e198backed Yes16c544.24$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.08303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No66c433.82$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.573,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes7c399.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.326827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No66c365.08$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1791967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes22c355.21$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4234219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe636…69d0backed Yes6c344.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa8e…31c0backed Yes21c333.19$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.781241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+49.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78eb…5134backed No77c315.28$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.34850%4 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7482…6cf6backed Yes28c300$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked No79c292.74$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4310235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes27c277.75$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8784124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No34c264.53$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.3359742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes13c245.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.863636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes22c245$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9935843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e1…4e25backed No74c236.57$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.813557.1%20 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No77c233.83$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8761760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes26c225.98$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.752,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed No68c209.46$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0716548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8179…6b12backed Yes11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212615.4%4 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c199.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes18c199.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes29c194.96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1557545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf85…29edbacked Yes47c190$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-69.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes39c186.48$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1311044.5%49 W · 61 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x721a…a398backed Yes16c180$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…a709backed No67c169.27$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.719260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes21c159.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes24c157.39$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes18c153.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9352533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes28c150$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4211855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes26c144.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.751,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff26…c6e9backed Yes26c144.86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c8…a9ffbacked No70c142.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes23c141.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9155919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c139.89$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.588,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdc2…fd60backed Yes32c124.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes30c121.3$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.821,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No60c119.85$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f3…79bdbacked Yes13c117.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.59714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+116.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No67c113.9$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1410247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c04…dbafbacked No70c112.72$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x293a…24f9backed Yes27c111.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3e1…1432backed Yes27c111.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+99.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8b9…3296backed Yes58c109.11$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6311129.7%33 W · 78 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c97.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.37,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed No71c97.83$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7741845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafe5…f7aebacked Yes16c97.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked No75c93.35$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3512357.7%71 W · 52 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No80c91$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.398565.9%56 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf19d…9afabacked Yes15c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.74129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes45c90$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c86.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x841d…0d0dbacked No67c85.53$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.84933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No69c85.18$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No78c84.66$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.472,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes43c82.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7125362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes18c80.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4516532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed No74c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.535362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df5…c097backed No64c77.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes34c76.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked Yes22c72.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1686173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf2…15aebacked Yes32c72.28$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No57c71.43$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7252245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4232652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes43c69.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.442,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3c3…ac62backed No74c67.35$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.81241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6265…c059backed No67c65.64$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.971936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x402f…19a4backed Yes29c64.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.79166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick21cpaid-43.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6924149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Yes36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202065%13 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes33c53.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6321919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf43…644fbacked Yes34c52.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.712528%7 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-53.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd11f…77bebacked Yes52c51.59$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.081735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-30.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6b2…4951backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.142,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4122…6c07backed Yes40c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce9e…63acbacked No72c47.14$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.09366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74be…6f86backed No53c47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.09366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes33c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8525536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde26…99eabacked No62c44.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.141457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf21b…5121backed No54c44.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.352958.6%17 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No65c42.57$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.92,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No61c40.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.811,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab48…30bebacked Yes30c40.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.219461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.444553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed No62c39.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2634633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea2d…1ad8backed No75c38.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.710100%10 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85b0…7c9abacked No78c38.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.51862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.