Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e476c6f4bfbbdb794d2265845a18793011fa0b5478cbe9a61a36cac3e487f3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 28c | 2,060$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.93 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 1c | 2,038$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156d…90f4backed Yes | 5c | 1,922$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,642$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.84 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 43c | 1,392$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,106$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed No | 68c | 1,101$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 610.23$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb150…e198backed Yes | 16c | 544.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 433.82$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 365.08$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.17 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 22c | 355.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe636…69d0backed Yes | 6c | 344.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8e…31c0backed Yes | 21c | 333.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78eb…5134backed No | 77c | 315.28$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…6cf6backed Yes | 28c | 300$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked No | 79c | 292.74$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.43 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 27c | 277.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 34c | 264.53$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.33 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 13c | 245.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 22c | 245$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed No | 74c | 236.57$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 77c | 233.83$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 26c | 225.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed No | 68c | 209.46$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…6b12backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 29c | 194.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…29edbacked Yes | 47c | 190$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 39c | 186.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…a398backed Yes | 16c | 180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 67c | 169.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 159.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 157.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 18c | 153.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 26c | 144.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…c6e9backed Yes | 26c | 144.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c8…a9ffbacked No | 70c | 142.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 23c | 141.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 139.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc2…fd60backed Yes | 32c | 124.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 121.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 119.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f3…79bdbacked Yes | 13c | 117.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 67c | 113.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…dbafbacked No | 70c | 112.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293a…24f9backed Yes | 27c | 111.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…1432backed Yes | 27c | 111.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 58c | 109.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 97.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 71c | 97.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe5…f7aebacked Yes | 16c | 97.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 75c | 93.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 80c | 91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 45c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 86.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…0d0dbacked No | 67c | 85.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 85.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 84.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 43c | 82.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 18c | 80.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 74c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…c097backed No | 64c | 77.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 34c | 76.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked Yes | 22c | 72.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…15aebacked Yes | 32c | 72.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 57c | 71.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 43c | 69.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c3…ac62backed No | 74c | 67.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed No | 67c | 65.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…19a4backed Yes | 29c | 64.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 33c | 53.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked Yes | 34c | 52.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…77bebacked Yes | 52c | 51.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…63acbacked No | 72c | 47.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…6f86backed No | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…99eabacked No | 62c | 44.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 54c | 44.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 42.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 40.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab48…30bebacked Yes | 30c | 40.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed No | 62c | 39.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea2d…1ad8backed No | 75c | 38.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85b0…7c9abacked No | 78c | 38.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.