Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e4821c631b899725299902f30b67a8fbd98a27a7955027fdf16ffd17ccf68a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 3c | 1,850$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,195$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 865.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 467.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…0d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 441.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 435$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 12c | 314.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 9c | 250.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 12c | 245.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes | 23c | 210$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 8c | 208.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 191.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 11c | 186.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 8c | 183.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 180.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1e…1dc1backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 13c | 127.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 127.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…dbafbacked Yes | 20c | 94.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 19c | 93.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 17c | 93.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 88.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 17c | 86.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 18c | 79.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 14c | 74.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 17c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd76c…7c92backed Yes | 20c | 52.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 77c | 51.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…920ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.