Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea2e0dd9aabb3e99a80c1652d14ff73bed5241129c3f0f89ca3b069265cf48b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,575$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 4c | 801.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 2c | 700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…7e41backed Yes | 2c | 625$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 21c | 588.7$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.63 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…19a4backed Yes | 3c | 572.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b5…60d5backed Yes | 29c | 516.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd376…12c7backed Yes | 4c | 506.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 6c | 320$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 318.34$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 56c | 294.1$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.41 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…c4c5backed Yes | 21c | 248.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 46c | 245$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.09 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 26c | 240.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed Yes | 34c | 218.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 35c | 211.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.61 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 207.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 199.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…f0f4backed Yes | 31c | 188$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 170.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 143.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 25c | 136.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 123.08$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 39c | 109.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…6cf6backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 33c | 94.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 92.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 90.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 44c | 89.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 63c | 79.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 30c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 24c | 73.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f0…a9b1backed Yes | 30c | 71.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 65.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 43c | 60.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 20c | 60.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…1b3fbacked No | 70c | 58.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 33c | 55.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 73c | 55.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 38c | 52.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 51.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 48.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 59c | 44.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 75c | 44.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 40.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 27c | 37.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 44c | 32.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 39c | 29.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 63c | 29.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 36c | 28.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…db89backed No | 70c | 22.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d72…9795backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…8e50backed No | 75c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 16.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 77c | 13.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.