TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Avalanche vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Avalanche, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,399,513
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,573,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,399,513 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 642 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Avalanche52c428,418$220,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220,829.1420354.2%110 W · 93 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning49c261,345$128,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133,185.71,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Lightning49c204,082$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,081.6310349.5%51 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Avalanche51c200,000$102,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,999.9422443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ef1…3713backed Lightning48c168,911$81,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,118.531442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Avalanche50c101,302$50,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,650.857946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Lightning50c80,000$40,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,00048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Lightning50c70,000$34,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,20025449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Lightning49c54,296$26,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,640.181741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9285…749ebacked Avalanche51c30,000$15,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,299.982556%14 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Avalanche51c25,755$13,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,125.561,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Avalanche50c25,035$12,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,517.7411745.3%53 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Avalanche51c25,000$12,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,7501,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Avalanche51c24,296$12,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,369.81,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked Avalanche51c14,744$7,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,519.64757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Lightning48c13,711$6,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,129.4948549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Avalanche40c13,584$5,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,460.6338738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Avalanche35c13,495$4,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,667.472,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Lightning49c12,888$6,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,572.8824349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Lightning50c10,320$5,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,16033243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Avalanche50c10,090$5,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,045.1122150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Lightning49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,10033151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Avalanche53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3007149.3%35 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Avalanche51c9,954$5,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,076.5138748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Avalanche41c7,381$3,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,031.092,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Avalanche51c7,200$3,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,67223047.4%109 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76f…1eacbacked Avalanche53c6,862$3,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,637450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Avalanche48c6,215$3,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,002.191,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lightning48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1201,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Avalanche50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Lightning49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,55027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Lightning50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5006640.9%27 W · 39 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Lightning47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6501,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x026b…bb31backed Avalanche51c4,950$2,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,524.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Avalanche50c4,516$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25851452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Lightning48c4,500$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3353953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Avalanche50c4,500$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2508134.6%28 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Avalanche52c4,500$2,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,324.9961748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Lightning47c4,104$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,175.2150049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab0c…3026backed Lightning49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0401266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Lightning50c3,986$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.1328152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Lightning49c3,530$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,802.491,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Lightning48c3,303$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.2361959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Lightning47c3,262$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.6141850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Lightning50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Lightning50c2,896$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.6141248.3%199 W · 213 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9bc…45c3backed Lightning50c2,750$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3752045%9 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Avalanche50c2,718$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.941,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Lightning47c2,606$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.065364.2%34 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Avalanche51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2758650%43 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Avalanche51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.9997651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Lightning46c2,496$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.3383652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Avalanche54c2,413$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.3889249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Lightning50c2,400$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Avalanche50c2,360$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18053050.6%268 W · 262 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde7…6f35backed Lightning50c2,341$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.93742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Avalanche51c2,225$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.2735829.3%105 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Avalanche50c2,200$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Avalanche23c2,144$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.797317.8%13 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Avalanche46c2,131$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.1334538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Lightning48c2,102$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.9518345.9%84 W · 99 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Lightning49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.827157.7%41 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Avalanche50c2,034$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01731753.9%171 W · 146 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Lightning48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04014945%67 W · 82 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Lightning49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0208845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Avalanche52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.9986649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Avalanche50c1,983$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.061,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Avalanche51c1,960$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.2860337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Lightning52c1,916$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.345853.4%31 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Avalanche51c1,900$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9696139.3%24 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-26.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Lightning49c1,900$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.111,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4427…0e7fbacked Lightning48c1,899$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a19…50b7backed Avalanche53c1,899$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.51520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Avalanche51c1,837$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.8928251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Avalanche51c1,820$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.2554047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Avalanche30c1,800$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54819548.2%94 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Avalanche43c1,732$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.6413437.3%50 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Lightning47c1,601$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.4438844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Avalanche8c1,592$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1629412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lightning68c1,550$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.1389636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Avalanche45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67533345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Avalanche50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7504837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Avalanche50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7509846.9%46 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Lightning50c1,488$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7446046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Avalanche51c1,471$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche50c1,444$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.112,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Lightning52c1,395$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.0557157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Lightning49c1,376$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.1532451.2%166 W · 158 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Avalanche46c1,361$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.0799638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Lightning48c1,339$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.6351044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Avalanche1c1,323$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.237450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Lightning69c1,119$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.3852172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche55c1,079$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.621,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Lightning57c1,066$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.0329926.4%79 W · 220 L-20.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Lightning48c1,052$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.288450%42 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Avalanche1c1,052$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.521458.3%12 W · 133 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+135.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Lightning49c1,021$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.7144551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Lightning48c1,021$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.925349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Lightning49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.4111151.4%57 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x209b…5706backed Avalanche50c1,020$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.931957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.