NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x685e4e01289b2e92efae7cfc055208bd46b0ec51d1d36e019faf201fc9d45d5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 29,501$15,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,162.54 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Over | 48c | 14,554$6,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,985.89 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 54c | 5,573$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,573.27 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 3,392$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.36 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 2,835$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.21 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 1,787$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.88 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…f721backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Over | 49c | 617.22$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.44 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 48c | 502.52$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.21 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 474.94$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.64 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 51c | 444$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 381.36$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.64 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…4a26backed Under | 53c | 376.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…aa3abacked Over | 47c | 333$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…0ad7backed Under | 54c | 294.73$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 52c | 248$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 46c | 149.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaab…8b4cbacked Over | 48c | 131.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 129.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 109.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…7572backed Over | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…552bbacked Under | 56c | 80.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0085…77cbbacked Under | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…5dc7backed Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 56c | 73.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Under | 53c | 66.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…0ecabacked Under | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 56.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…9289backed Under | 53c | 55.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 53.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6943…0819backed Under | 53c | 50.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…84b0backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…4dc6backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -6.1wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 40c | 44.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ba…c20bbacked Under | 54c | 43.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…5cbdbacked Under | 52c | 41.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02a…2573backed Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 46c | 39.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 47c | 37.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 57c | 35.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed Under | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…a9a4backed Under | 52c | 35.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…30aabacked Over | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…7afcbacked Under | 53c | 31.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…1022backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 54c | 28.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf45…bbdbbacked Under | 54c | 27.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Under | 54c | 25.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…b795backed Under | 54c | 24.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…6a83backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…700fbacked Under | 54c | 18.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…a807backed Under | 73c | 16.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Avalanche vs. LightningLightning won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.