Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x466be88c1e6ae35ebcd362c04a580188f721856c2406698c57a4f114e59eff83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 1c | 14,606$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 11,302$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.26 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…aa57backed Yes | 20c | 4,195$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 3,239$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.55 | 980 | 13.9%136 W · 844 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 3,129$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.77 | 1,730 | 18%311 W · 1,419 L | +73.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…8d3bbacked No | 80c | 1,425$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,262$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 634 | 24.1%153 W · 481 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dc…282bbacked No | 80c | 1,238$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 5c | 915.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 931 | 34%317 W · 614 L | +53.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 227.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 20c | 191.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 77c | 178$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 25c | 147.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 139.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d72…9795backed No | 71c | 138.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 137.17$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…1b3fbacked No | 72c | 129.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 122.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 2,213 | 23.7%525 W · 1,688 L | +86.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 36c | 99.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 86.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 35c | 82.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 575 | 27.8%160 W · 415 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 77.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0259…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 74.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…5d86backed No | 74c | 71.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 36c | 68.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 23c | 62.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 68c | 55.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 30c | 53.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa309…8427backed Yes | 39c | 51.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe3…c2edbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…8d8abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…3a89backed Yes | 34c | 36.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6e…929dbacked Yes | 41c | 35.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked Yes | 41c | 34.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x686b…5de0backed Yes | 46c | 30.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 528 | 33.3%176 W · 352 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 27.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78eb…5134backed No | 78c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…a8f1backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 78cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…8fb0backed No | 65c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 70c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.